it stemmed the bleeding for a few days, but at the end of the day, Teslas are being vandalized across the US, foreign sales are falling off a cliff, and the stock was massively overvalued compared to any other automaker. it can fall much much much more. it's still expensive relative to other automakers 50% lower than current prices
not a single share of tesla has been bought in the last 10 years because someone thought they are a “car company.” of course whether “non-car” part ever materializes we shall see (I give this 0.76% chance) but tesla should never be compared or put into context of other car companies as that is completely irrelevant - stock prices wise…)
Maybe past 2 years, once it become obvious that sales growth is stopping and Tesla 'pivoted' to another story.
Until about mid-2024, Tesla was still projecting a 50% growth in car sales per year, until 2030 - with a goal of selling 20M car / year by that deadline. That was a very nice story that people believed.
Now they believe that Tesla will produce billions of Optimus robots. Which is also a nice story.
Especially when you realize they're actually behind their far cheaper Chinese competition ...
There's also 10 Chinese and even some European startup competitors that aren't even bothering with advanced mechanics. Humanoid robots that can be described as "quasi-direct-drive motors with sticks in between", that do everything the Tesla robots can.
If Tesla's demonstrated anything, it's that they can barely match 10 year old Boston Dynamics demonstrations, and 2-3 year old Chinese demonstrations. It's making clear what everyone in robotics knew 40 years ago: software will win robotics. Not hardware.
And let's just not mention the very embarrassing "human disguised as robot" demos Musk did.
For retail investors indeed, the 'carrot' was robotaxi and lately robots.
But many (most) Wall Street analysts were attaching 0 importance to these 2, and their valuations were mostly driven by the projections of auto-sales. Which indeed at 20M units / year, given the margins they made in 2022, would be something valuable.
Yeah what is this nonsense? Ketamine nor stupidity explains this. Does he think everyone else is a moron? I guess he must.
3.6B / 100K = 36000 years. It's more like 240M/year to get to 3.6B. The number of human workers isn't flat either. And Tesla isn't going to be making 240M robots a year anytime soon so WTF?
the robots are sideshow, people believe (have believed for more than a decade but maybe not people are getting a little bit wiser...) in robotaxis... every tesla investor I know (5 of them) is a believer that tesla's robotaxis will (slowly but surely) take over most of the car transportation in the US. that would be worth some multiple of the current eval - maybe not 100+ but something...
> every tesla investor I know (5 of them) is a believer that tesla's robotaxis will (slowly but surely) take over most of the car transportation in the US.
... Why would anyone believe this? Like, even if they suddenly magically jump from level 2 to level 5 (implausible), what's so special about their thing that they'd have a monopoly? If _they_ can do it, the likes of Waymo certainly can.
The trouble is, that's long been the whole basis of Tesla's stock price. It may have halved in price in the last few months, but it still has a PE ratio of _over one hundred_. That would be a bit on the silly side for the hypiest of SaaS companies; meanwhile under 10 is more typical in the car industry.
Tesla's stock price has always been based largely on feels/memestock value, so if that goes, well, that's kind of all it has.
I don't know, might be in combination with the cars too. cybertruck isn't selling, and they keep putting everything on the touchscreen, like drive select.
Now is a terrible time to buy Tesla.
Sentiment has completely shifted about this company. Sales are tanking. Why would now be a good time to buy Tesla? Do you think they deserve 2x Toyotas valuation?
I wonder if you shared that opinion when it was on the way up as well. Because the P/E ratio has been lopsided compared to other auto makers for years.
Or, are you perhaps skewed in your own opinion due to your near constant support of the american conservatives in your previous posts and comments.
That stock has been so absurdly high compared to other carmakers… this seems all but inevitable.
So high. Almost at 420 at one point!
I guess having a sitting president do a live commercial for you on the White House lawn isn’t as helpful as it seemed.
it stemmed the bleeding for a few days, but at the end of the day, Teslas are being vandalized across the US, foreign sales are falling off a cliff, and the stock was massively overvalued compared to any other automaker. it can fall much much much more. it's still expensive relative to other automakers 50% lower than current prices
not a single share of tesla has been bought in the last 10 years because someone thought they are a “car company.” of course whether “non-car” part ever materializes we shall see (I give this 0.76% chance) but tesla should never be compared or put into context of other car companies as that is completely irrelevant - stock prices wise…)
Maybe past 2 years, once it become obvious that sales growth is stopping and Tesla 'pivoted' to another story.
Until about mid-2024, Tesla was still projecting a 50% growth in car sales per year, until 2030 - with a goal of selling 20M car / year by that deadline. That was a very nice story that people believed.
Now they believe that Tesla will produce billions of Optimus robots. Which is also a nice story.
Especially when you realize they're actually behind their far cheaper Chinese competition ...
There's also 10 Chinese and even some European startup competitors that aren't even bothering with advanced mechanics. Humanoid robots that can be described as "quasi-direct-drive motors with sticks in between", that do everything the Tesla robots can.
If Tesla's demonstrated anything, it's that they can barely match 10 year old Boston Dynamics demonstrations, and 2-3 year old Chinese demonstrations. It's making clear what everyone in robotics knew 40 years ago: software will win robotics. Not hardware.
And let's just not mention the very embarrassing "human disguised as robot" demos Musk did.
not the past 2 years - more than a decade on "robotaxi" (https://brandonpaddock.substack.com/p/a-brief-history-of-tes...) ... the bots came later...
For retail investors indeed, the 'carrot' was robotaxi and lately robots.
But many (most) Wall Street analysts were attaching 0 importance to these 2, and their valuations were mostly driven by the projections of auto-sales. Which indeed at 20M units / year, given the margins they made in 2022, would be something valuable.
Yeah what is this nonsense? Ketamine nor stupidity explains this. Does he think everyone else is a moron? I guess he must.
3.6B / 100K = 36000 years. It's more like 240M/year to get to 3.6B. The number of human workers isn't flat either. And Tesla isn't going to be making 240M robots a year anytime soon so WTF?
> Does he think everyone else is a moron?
I think he's made it pretty clear that's exactly what he thinks.
the robots are sideshow, people believe (have believed for more than a decade but maybe not people are getting a little bit wiser...) in robotaxis... every tesla investor I know (5 of them) is a believer that tesla's robotaxis will (slowly but surely) take over most of the car transportation in the US. that would be worth some multiple of the current eval - maybe not 100+ but something...
> every tesla investor I know (5 of them) is a believer that tesla's robotaxis will (slowly but surely) take over most of the car transportation in the US.
... Why would anyone believe this? Like, even if they suddenly magically jump from level 2 to level 5 (implausible), what's so special about their thing that they'd have a monopoly? If _they_ can do it, the likes of Waymo certainly can.
And maybe that is the reason why it is going down now. The speculation seems like not going to materialize.
Excellent news
Bit of a double-edged sword that. Might appeal to Trump-y people, but only serves to bury the brand in Europe and non-Trump-y America further.
What's the overlap between hard core Trumpers and people that want an EV though?
Didn't help Jeep when Biden did it, either. Stellantis is going out of business.
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It has nothing to do with the product/company itself and everything to do with emotion/opinion. It's probably a good time to buy.
The trouble is, that's long been the whole basis of Tesla's stock price. It may have halved in price in the last few months, but it still has a PE ratio of _over one hundred_. That would be a bit on the silly side for the hypiest of SaaS companies; meanwhile under 10 is more typical in the car industry.
Tesla's stock price has always been based largely on feels/memestock value, so if that goes, well, that's kind of all it has.
Not buying anything from Elon for obvious reasons
I don't know, might be in combination with the cars too. cybertruck isn't selling, and they keep putting everything on the touchscreen, like drive select.
Now is a terrible time to buy Tesla. Sentiment has completely shifted about this company. Sales are tanking. Why would now be a good time to buy Tesla? Do you think they deserve 2x Toyotas valuation?
As of this moment: 3X the valuation; 1/3rd the revenue; 7X the P/E ratio
A long way yet to fall
If that's true, you should be able to show it with some math... Where is it?
If you gifted me a Tesla, I would burn it
I wonder if you shared that opinion when it was on the way up as well. Because the P/E ratio has been lopsided compared to other auto makers for years.
Or, are you perhaps skewed in your own opinion due to your near constant support of the american conservatives in your previous posts and comments.
I don’t know how much it is Elon, but just because he was there when the price went up doesn’t mean it can’t be about him when it went down too…
It is still overvalued.