Not much. 15 years ago was 2010. Gas stations in 2025 are very similar to Gas stations from 2010. I doubt they will be too different in 2040. May be a few more EV chargers.
The ones they build here in Norway has changed somewhat from 2010. For one, mainly EV chargers, with just a few, if any, pumps.
Mostly sells food and soft drinks, so hot dogs, fresh sandwiches, baked goods, with much more seating area so you can sit and eat while your car charges.
Has almost no car-related stuff, just one or two small sections of blinker fluid, wunder-baum and such.
And looking at the current trend, there will be far fewer of them, mainly located at strategic positions. The small, local gas stations will go away.
I remember reading this piece of news some time ago[0]: “People may not know – BP sells coffee. We sold 150 million cups of coffee last year,” Bernard Looney said in an interview in August (2020), referring to beverage kiosks attached to the company’s fuel stations. “This is a very strong business. It’s a growth business.”
I remember I was impressed by this. The only country I drink gas-station-coffee is Finland (because where else can you find coffee in the middle of nowhere?). So right after I read that article, and the first time I saw a BP gas station I got a coffee. It was 'cheap' and I assume EUR per mg of caffeine was 'ok', but the quality/flavor.. omfg. Also, volcanic hot, so thanks but no thanks.
With the hot-dogs, fries, pizzas, snacks, milk, cereal, alcohol (in some countries), they remind me of "The Profit" with Marcus Lemonis, where he is trying to use each square-inch from a retail store to sell stuff.
Today, every gas station is self-serve, and often you can pay by card at the pump.
50 years ago, plenty of gas stations still had attendants. One guy would fill the tank (possibly with 'leaded'), another might give your windshield a quick wipe. You could ask for them to check your oil, too.
That’s definitely an innovation that creates convenience but does it really change the commercial function of the station much? You are still essentially transacting for fuel, which is what gas stations have done for decades. My guess is while a lot of stations provide that ability out of customer demand, but the owners would probably rather the customer come in and buy the over priced soda and Doritos along with the gas purchase. I don’t think owner-operators make hardly anything on the fuel sales.
With my comment I was thinking more along the lines of overall footprint of the station and what products are being sold. I think self-service pushed the ability for stations to service more pumps and with a person anchored to a register inside instead of outside attending to the pumps, it allowed the ability of stations to expand to more a mini-mart concept easily where more profitable products (to the station owner) are sold.
EV charging might help bring people into the food, but i suspect you don’t “turn tables” fast enough to make EV charging beneficial enough to bringing enough people inside to warrant devoting a lot of space to that activity.
Gas stations often used to be car service stations as well. We have a few local ones with 3-4 car work garages attached but they are always closed now and used for storage.
> North America has stuck to minimum of 1 staff at all times. No staff = closed.
Not true at all at least in California. I regularly fill at unattended stations late at night past midnight. The credit card operated pumps are operable 24/7.
Years ago we were traveling in remote areas of Nevada and running out of gas around 2am, desperately trying to find a gas station (this is before mobile phones, so couldn't just look things up, although maybe even today might be too remote for signal). Finally rolled into a small village with a gas station but everything was dark, so we thought we'll take a nap there until whenever they open. But I noticed the pump light was on, so I gave it a try. Yes, it worked!
I agree that they probably would benefit more from food sales off EV charging on a per vehicle basis, but they would need to turn over the chargers to new customers much quicker than what happens now for that to really benefit them.
Hydrogen seems like going backwards into the future. For personal transport it surely is a dead end, there are no significant upsides to offset the large downsides compared to BEVs.
Perhaps it can work well for certain commercial niches, time will tell.
Here in Norway we just have had a handful of hydrogen stations, and of those two went out of business.
Meanwhile almost all new cars here are BEV, even out in many rural areas BEVs are 50% of new sales.
A local store can relatively easily and cheaply install a supercharger. Installing a hydrogen pump is presumably much more expensive as it requires more space and more complex equipment. And it needs refilling by truck, while electricty just flows.
And while EV chargers or cars can catch fire during charging, hydrogen can explode violently[1][2] when mixed with air (the one in Norway registered as an earthquake 30 km, 20 miles, away).
As I said perhaps it will find some niche uses, but widescale adoptation seems very unlikely to me.
I know my view will be affected by the UK being generally a small country...
most people aren't driving 200+ miles a day, which means 90% of charging will be at home.
Driving longer that 200 miles means you probably want a decent break. So I would imagine that most "local" places will disappear / pivot into shops with EV charging also.
Motorway services will also change I think. Fast food isnt as much of an appeal when you're stuck there for an hour or so anyway. So I could see a rise in retrain complexes with charging abilities.
possibly changes in behaviour will also affect things. If im traveling 4-6hrs in a day, id be ok with stopping of for an hour at a shopping centre where I could charge and also do some shopping, maybe let the kids play in a softplay or whatever
The first clever folks to stick a bull ring within 5 minutes drive of the M6 will 200+ charging points will do VERY well I think.
The process has already begun - UK petrol station numbers are down by a third since the beginning of the century.
As you say, they'll all but cease to exist in urban areas, with the process mostly complete by the end of the 2030s. I'm not sure that dedicated EV charging stations will be all that common in cities, though. Why not use existing car parks for that?
Some probably will end up being used as surface car parks where there's demand for it, but urban land values are such that I suspect most will be knocked down and replaced with apartments or larger retail units. A few may retain the forecourt structures as a form of kitsch (think of the florists beside Regents Park in London, or the Hyde Park Book Club in Leeds).
There'll probably be a growing niche for domestic fuel delivery services. You might also see a minor resurgence of the very small neighbourhood filling stations that mostly died out in the 1970s/80s - the sort of place that does MOT checks or tyre changes today. Some might end up installing a pump or two, to cater for vintage car enthusiasts.
I think vintage car enthusiasts will end up served by oil drums and a drum pump. That's already how petrol is delivered and distributed to small island communities.
I basically have my car to get from the big city I live in, to a secondary city. I always buy my fuel in that secondary city because it’s always much cheaper.
> Many cities will ban vintage cars from entering.
The gas station will be older, crappier. As the shift to electric cars takes hold new gas stations won’t be built, old ones won’t be renovated, and they’ll be squeezed harder. Expect more stuff to buy at worse prices with more advertising.
Chargers will likely rise up around a different type of venue that won’t be seen as a gas station. More cafes, places suitable to spend 15+ minutes. Places with seating.
Increasingly gas stations will just be seen as a dated concept that isn’t living up to the world of 2040. Otherwise they’ll be almost exactly the same as today.
I am seeing the exact opposite in Texas. Bucees's and QT are causing a lot of gas stations to up level both the amenities and merchandising. If anything the experience is getting a lot nicer. If you haven't been to a Bucee's you should.
First I’d answer the question: should there be any gas stations at all? With self driving vehicles you could imagine a future where self driving gas dispensing trucks roam the highways to refill cars as they go.
Or instead of trucks you could imagine that the left lane on highways could be replaced by some kind of train on rails that your car could dock to. In that train you’d have the same crap you have in current gas stations: mostly toilets and food stuff.
Cars docking to stuff is something that really clicks with me, but you could really go one step further away. You could split cars between the part that runs and the part that carries passengers. The part that carries people could be some kind of capsule akin to a boat container that could be loaded onto something else. When on the highway, this cabin could be put on some giant train that would carry hundreds of these capsules and when you need to get off the highway, your capsule would be loaded on some independent single-capsule vehicle, that would drive you where you need to go.
It’s probably all terrible ideas because that would make everything a lot less resilient to problems in terms of operation, but you said sci fi :-)
Oh and yeah 15 years is way too short to see that kind of changes.
My prediction:
1) Yes, It'll sell gas but it'll also have electric stations.
2) Basic snacks and food but maybe more electric cigarettes lol
3) Only chips (either on your credit card, phone or under your skin)
4) Simplistic and white modern look
5) Cleaner restrooms as the robots clean every 30 min and no staff, more cameras with AI to detect anamoly and call 911 quickly.
In the US at least, I feel like you hit that late 90s convenience experience.
While it's true they still do these things, or try to, in my experience nobody actually uses them because of understaffing and underpaying of employees to the point of them not caring.
Who wants a brown hot dog or dried out taquito that's been on a roller for who knows how many days? Who wants soda from moldy taps? Who wants to stand in line to change out propane, to be told there's only one person working, go out and wait til the line is gone? Air is still free, but you have to go in and ask for it to be turned on.
At least that's my experience, maybe each locale is different. I literally have never seen a person buy prepared food or exchange propane at a typical gas station(wawa/buckees excluded) in my adult life.
In Australia they have had a complete resurgence thanks to food delivery apps. Shit I even like our 7 Eleven petrol station coffee. And I am not the only one I often have to ask them to change the milk jugs over in the machine.
They are open 24/7 with just enough food at only triple supermarket prices.
Nearest 4 to me always have better than 50% empty gas bottles, and the second it gets cold they sell out of firewood.
2/3 of their air hoses have been vandalised however, which just leaves a line up at the third.
Is the air free in Aussie stations? In Canada it’s usually a charge and a $10 compressor you can store in your trunk will pay itself off and more reliably work when you need it (especially if you have a slow leak & need it frequently).
In a pinch I’ve used a bicycle pump (which is fine for a top up, not so much for fill-from-flat).
It seems to be this. Many such stores near me offer a lot of prepared food (many thousands of calories at once on the heated display surface) and they’re not at loss-leader prices, so I have to assume it’s profitable.
They start to disappear in cities replaced by parking spot fast chargers. Some remain for ICE engines but fewer of them. The ICE engines ones are as now as there is no need to innovate e.g. robots filling your fuel.
Between cities they will be as now a rest stop mainly with fuel. Maybe more charging where you park.
Whether we staff or not depends on if we adopt Japanese culture. In Tokyo they have unattended fast food shops, and somewhat novelty robot servers at some restaurants.
I predict 50% chance of that happening. It may be driven to buy robots and automation becoming cheaper than labour plus mass surveillance making it less appetizing to steal.
They will be virtually identical, except that there will be far more ads. Perhaps stations in super urban areas will integrate AI into the pump, using your name and level 3 data to market to you hyper-specifically.
Also Arizona teas will no longer say 99¢ on the can.
I’m pretty close to spraying something into the speakers to destroy them. I had to get gas at an ad blasting station yesterday and got just 3 gallons and left.
I'm reminded of when Blockbuster wiped out all the little video rental places. Even if existing gas stations install chargers, most EV drivers are going to prefer to charge someplace where it's nice to spend an hour or two, and whoever creates those places is going to take all the business.
Many places here in Germany have typically 1-2 parking spots dedicated to charging EV. (Free to use)
I believe increasing their number of chargers as the need arises is the main way this is going to develop. Basically no central gas station anymore as we know it but a shop with 1-2 chargers. If lots of shops do it, it becomes like decentralized charging.
Gas station convenience stores in Brazil have for the most part replaced regular convenience stores, especially outside regular work hours. Gas stations in Brazil tend to be well lit spaces with ample parking, surveillance and frequent police presence. I wouldn't be surprised if gas stations in the northern hemisphere become a little more like Brazilian gas stations as time goes by and urban violence increases in Europe, USA and Canada.
I also don't buy on the inevitability of electric vehicles. I am pretty sure at least diesel and ethanol will be around for a long time.
They’ll probably keep dispensing hydrocarbon fuels. But we may see fuel stations migrate or integrate into other destinations a bit. Mostly Costco these days, but as we transition to electrically powered vehicles, we’ll see more charging + hydrocarbon fuel stations colocated with other businesses with linty of parking that also draw people for a significant amount of time, enough to charge an e-vehicle to significant degree.
A fascinating thought exercise. It mirrors a question we obsess over every day at my startup: "In 15 years, what will an 'office' visit look like?"
My bet for the gas station: they become high-density "Service Hubs." The main product won't be selling gas, but selling time and convenience back to the driver. Think ultra-fast EV charging bays, automated Amazon package return kiosks, a great coffee subscription service, and maybe even quick biometric health check pods. They'll be data-driven, hyper-efficient service points.
I believe the traditional office is facing the same existential shift. Its core "product" a desk to sit at from 9 to 5 is becoming as obsolete as the gasoline pump.
The "office" of the future isn't a physical place; it's a system. A Workspace OS where the most important flow isn't people commuting to a building, but information flowing seamlessly from conversation → to idea → to action. It's a space where an AI teammate handles the repetitive work (summarizing meetings, tracking tasks), freeing up humans to do the deep, creative work that truly matters.
So, in 2040, perhaps the best gas stations and the best offices will have one thing in common: you'll barely notice they're there. They'll just be a seamless, intelligent system that helps you get where you need to go whether that's across the country, or from a great idea to a finished product.
I feel the concept of EV charging might be democratized. These are the problems with EV stations:
It takes a while to charge up.
No matter what, only a very few people can be accommodated at once.
On the flip side, setting up a gas station is hard, but that’s not the case with EV charging stations — especially if battery swapping is innovated. It also takes time to deeply penetrate the market, but EV charging is much more suitable for two-wheelers.
So there’s a clear gap — the current gas stations can’t handle the volume of people waiting for EV charging. What is the way forward? I feel anyone with an EV charger can set up an EV charging station at home. This means all your malls, houses, and parks might be converted into EV charging stations, making it much more decentralized.
I anticipate that anyone with an EV charger and good parking space can make some extra bucks from it. I feel the whole idea of gas stations might be democratized. I’m not sure — this is just what I feel. Feel free to let me know your opinion.
Connecting EV charging stations to the grid is a significant problem. Balancing the peak grid maximum demand* against EV charging demand. While it may be okay to have a busy highway/motorway service station properly hooked up, it get's more difficult to apply that more broadly. How much charging capacity should a shopping centre provide? What about a occasionally-used sports venue?
I have worked with customers that have distribution centres in city locations to charge online-shopping vehicles overnight for the next day. All vehicles are plugged in and the software needs to charge different vehicles up at different times and rates, in order to spread the load.
It is far easier to dig a hole in the ground and fill a tank with delivered fuel - all the logistics for this already exists.
* Maximum demand is a well-known concept that relates to the maximum current draw in a 30-minute period, which is used to provide the necessary infrastructure from the electricity supplier.
Yes and especially diesel which will not go away for a few generations. There are no EV replacements for heavy trucks and they do not appear to be viable yet. 3500 through 7500 series. Battery tech will have to make science fiction level improvements. When those trucks are gone society comes to a stand-still. Comparison to earth moving equipment in mines do not apply.
what convenience items will it sell?
The popular versions of what they sell today and is known to bring in revenue.
who, if anyone, will staff it?
Mostly high-school kids, some people that do not have the confidence to move on and some with criminal backgrounds.
what payment methods will it accept?
Credit, Debit, Cash. Maybe bitcoin.
will it offer new services?
If they have the parking lot space then there may be battery swap stations to quickly swap out EV packs, offer paid upgrades to newer batteries and battery tech every few years.
So far they've barely made a dent in global big truck numbers but they're planning to expand over the next few years .. and there are others in the same business.
> Comparison to earth moving equipment in mines do not apply.
Why not? These fleets have been quasi electric since the 1970s, have serious ongoing research into fully renewable replacement paths, and are responsible for a massive chunk of transport fuel usage given the sheer number of mines in the world and numbers such as iron ore mining in one Australia state alone accounting for > than a billion tonnes moved by trucks alone (including overburden, etc).
These aren't trucks that refuel at gas stations, but they are a considerable sink for fossil fuels.
Why not? These fleets have been quasi electric since the 1970s
They move slowly on dedicated predictable paths all controlled by the same system that choreographs their movements, controls who goes in for system charges. Some of them are EV in the sense they use electricity but they have no batteries. More of them now have batteries but they can in no way be compared to the usage patterns of human use cases. This is why batteries have been viable for them since the 70's. Massive inefficient monsters on slow moving controlled paths. Some of them charge whilst moving using massive cables laid out in the roads in the mine. In a mine slow and steady wins the race. In the rest of the world it would be chaos or more specifically not viable.
Big-rigs also make sense as the fleet owned and controlled trucks can charge at dedicated yards and will all move in coordinated efforts.
There are still no viable 3500 through 7500 series trucks operated by small to medium business owners and those run the short haul of many industries in the USA. As such the diesel versions of them will be around for a very long time. I keep an eye on battery tech for my own selfish reasons and have yet to see anything that would power those trucks without pushing them over their weight limits to the point of making them legally unusable. As is business owners skirt the line when they are on the scales. Heavy batteries would require them to cut their loads and effectively also eat their profits and waste a lot of their time making multiple trips. If they become viable I will see it right away as I am surrounded by them and business owners will do what makes financial sense. I will be the first to change opinions on this when it is a profitable option.
The closest I have yet to see in Science Fiction levels of battery improvement is 3D printed solid state batteries and they have a long way to go just to make it into tools, cell phones, etc... That needed to happen a decade ago if we want to see them in big trucks within 15 years. I would love to be proven wrong ... for my own selfish reasons unrelated to electric vehicles.
Do you live somewhere in the east where states are close together? If I want to travel across my state, I'd have to plan a recharge somewhere along the way for nearly any electric vehicle. To fill up with gas would take ten minutes; as far as I can tell, any EV is going to take >30 minutes. Not saying that's a gating factor, but it's certainly something to consider. Likewise in states with more continental weather, there also appears to be some concern about extreme cold causing issues with charging and/or battery service life.
More advertising, more intrusive tracking and personal information collection (mandatory membership in something, swipe your license or scan some biometric, no cash options), more expensive gas. More nagging from your car about things that aren't even on your radar now.
The ones in towns will mostly disappear. There will be enough chargers at supermarkets, malls, restaurants, anywhere people actually want to go, and most people will charge at home or work. The remaining business won't be enough to keep in-town gas stations in business. Range anxiety will become more of an issue for gas cars.
On highways, it will be a different situation. There will be plenty of gas and diesel still available, as the remaining business from towns becomes more concentrated. You won't find a gas station without a restaurant attached though. Fast chargers will be common, but ultra-fast ones won't be as common as we'd like, as they will want to keep you just long enough to buy a meal, etc.
"many service center operators are removing one or more gas pumps and installing EV chargers instead. According to Bloomberg Hyperdrive, at the Uno-X Furuset service area on the outskirts of Oslo, four gas pumps have become three. ... At some service areas, the fuel pumps are all being removed to make way for EV chargers. "
Such a cool question! My perspective as a Lithuanian:
I think they will continue to sell both petrol and diesel in 15 years. I think gas (we have some cars running on literally gas) will not be there anymore. There will be more EV chargers, I would think in every station.
I would think in 15 years someone will try and succeed to create a "destination gas station", like a cool restaurant, that people will go out of their route to visit.
I don't think we will be on self driving trucks in 15 years. But once we get there, gas stations will service them in whatevet service they will need.
> I would think in 15 years someone will try and succeed to create a "destination gas station", like a cool restaurant, that people will go out of their route to visit.
This has already happened in the U.S. Southeast. It's called "Bucc-ee's". They're very large gas stations with 50+ pumps. They have a squirrel for a mascot and sometimes if you go there's someone dressed up as the mascot there.
Inside, it's not a traditional restaurant but they're well known for selling barbecue (e.g. brisket). They also have large sections of the inner store dedicated to selling lots of rustic and outdoor type things that you'd traditionally get at a department store--things like grills, tents, etc.
Interesting Q - though I predict they will largely look the same. They may have more battery charging stations or replacement batteries (especially for stations on an interstate) but otherwise I think it will just be a nicer version of what we have today. Maybe higher quality hot food and more interesting snacks, which I think we are already seeing today with new stations.
Most gas stations today only have one employee at a time so it seems hard to cut that down (and not much incentive tbh).
Electric cars today are still under 10%. Cars last a really long time, so even if there is a huge surge in electric self-driving cars by 2030 there will still be lots of ICE cars on the road in 15 years.
By 2040, I suspect not much will have changed. In the US, most engines that required leaded gasoline rolled off the assembly lines in the 1960s, with the legal phase-out beginning in the 1970s, and finally ending in the 1990s.
As I have a classic car that I intend to keep running, I suspect eventually (e.g. not by 2040), buying fuel for it will be similar to buying pre-mixed fuel for small two-stroke engines, like leafblowers and chainsaws: go to Auto Zone and buy a few gallons of fuel. Auto Zone and friends won't be going anywhere - EVs still need wiper blades, brake pads, and other incidentals.
It is hard to predict a new advancement in EV technology, but if we get to a point where an EV is cheaper than the equivalent ICE and charges faster than you can gas up (so about twice as fast as the fastest EV today), and has a longer range than the equivalent ICE, then people will buy more of them. Then we will start to see more EV chargers than gas stations.
Advancements in AI might make it possible to have attendant-less stations if you can have automated sales of snacks and other merchandise, and automated payments for chargers and gas, maybe you don't need an attendant on duty 24/7
I meant that a lot of people still pay cash for gas, but a move toward more electronic payments or at least an automated cash kiosk would let you get rid of those last use cases for a human attendant to take cash
It’s very exciting imho, uptake of EVs and hybrids in China is contributing to noticeable oil demand destruction, and Chinese oil companies have already called the demand peak.
Somewhere in a photo album is a picture of my mother-in-law standing in front of a gas station 20-30 years ago. It was odd. Why stage this photo here? It didn't seem like a particularly pretty or special gas station.
I asked her about it, and she said she was thinking about how this common thing will probably disappear or look very different in the future, and it would be interesting to take a photo before it's gone.
Alas, the photo is still of a boring place that exists everywhere.
They will follow the Buceee's model. It's not about the gas. It's about amenities and merchandising. Because of the amount of pumps, they would make a perfect fit for lots of electric chargers as well if they wanted to convert.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WksA55t6f9o
I'm hoping it'll be like the GridServe electric forecourts in the UK: a place to charge your car, have a snack, do a bit of shopping or relax, or rent an office pod for a few hours. Wishful thinking, maybe, but what good is trying to peer into the future without a bit of that kind of thinking?
A lounge. There are too many today, tens of thousands will close. Most charging will take place at home or at work. EVs support payment by VIN with crypto primitives negotiating with the charger over the charger cable before charging starts, so how ever you’ll fund that balance (likely instant payments).
I agree that the petrol/diesel niche will increasingly shrink, but it could take decades to vanish.
Perhaps some larger chain will step in, and incorporate one dinky petrol station at each location? The safety issues probably rule out a chain restaurant, but maybe Walmart will become the go-to.
Walmart is installing EV chargers at thousands of their locations. Tesla colocated at Meijer, some Targets, etc. Grocery stores, airports (Chattanooga airport hosts a Tesla charging station), anywhere people go today and there is power can be one.
Petrol won’t go away overnight, but it will reach tipping points where it’s no longer cost effective to deliver it to areas or host a petrol station once an inflection point occurs with regards to demand.
most people certainly do not live in a place that has a garage with dedicated charging port. people who leave their cars outside to charge will be subject to vandalism and pranksters cutting/disconnecting the cables. electric vehicles are luxury vehicles for people with means.
In 2023, the U.S. had approximately 85.3 million single-family detached homes and 8.2 million single-family attached homes, totaling around 93.5 million single-family homes. This represents the majority of the nation's housing stock.
Rebates exist for a reason to install EV chargers at home. Certainly, it will take time, but the transition is inevitable at this point. The average daily round trip commute is less than 40 miles, which is ~12 hours of charging on a 15A 120V household outlet. Electricity is ubiquitous, and installing interfaces is relatively inexpensive and straightforward.
This is certainly very location dependent. Where I live, outside parking is the norm, with lots of people either charging EVs or pre-heating their engine without being subjected to any vandalism.
At least in the Bay Area it’s pretty common for people to park their car on the curb in front of their house and run a charge cable out over the sidewalk. Mostly just works.
Alright, even if I were to grant this without reservation this doesn't get us back to the GP's assertion that electric vehicles are luxury cars for a select segment of the population.
Most countries will have fast chargers with one gas pump for the remaining ICE cars. That’s already happening in Norway, for example.
The US? After a decade plus of authoritarian rule and the near outlaw of EVs, we’ll have exactly the same gas stations and cars, all produced right here because the rest of the world doesn’t want them.
It’ll be a throwback culture desperately trying to cling to the tired myth of 1950s white suburban American supremacy while China leads the way into the future with bullet trains, fast charging electric cars and solar everywhere.
I should also mention that a large percentage of the population is in love with ICE-mobiles. They transport the ever-shrinking middle class and lower classes that can't afford to completely replace their vehicles with EVs and, likely, never will be. Even the world's ugliest electric truck is beyond the reach of a large portion of the middle class. Removing gas stations and adding charging stations is not going to do anything except cause more panic.
NGL, I drive a gas-powered Jetta (I wish it was diesel, but oh well) and if I can't get gas, I can't drive. While I'm lucky enough to live where there's some sort of public transit, that's not a thing in a lot of cities. Without the political will or the budget to start adding public transportation RIGHT THE HELL NOW, if ICE goes away, our economy is screwed.
The new budget that passed the house has registration fees on EVs that will only match gas cars if you drive well over 25,000 miles a year. Maybe "outlaw" was hyperbolic, but you tax what you want less of. I would imagine that these taxes will only increase. Especially compared to the _incentives_ offered in every other country.
We don't "outlaw" cigarettes, for example, but I would call the current taxes on them a "near" outlaw.
My point is that there's no reason to tax them more than gas cars. Gas cars create FAR more negative externalities. I'm not saying they shouldn't be taxed at all; sorry if you got that impression.
EVs tend to weigh more and cause a higher degree of microplastic emission and road wear.
HN is usually happy to remind everyone that the damage a vehicle causes to a road scales with the fourth power of its weight. A Tesla model 3 is about triple the wear on the road surface compared to a Toyota Camry.
The average gas car is an F150, and the average EV is a Model Y. EVs don’t tend to weigh more. And the tire microplastic thing is misinformation with zero evidence. The only evidence we have is the drastically reduced brake wear (and dust) on EVs.
Obviously the higher mass and torque of the EV causes more microplastics. This is basic materials science and the reason why EVs need tougher tires.
I dont get why we're comparing F150s to the Model Y. When Im looking to buy a truck, Im not considering the Model Y (although In peeved the Ranger isnt hybrid). I have never considered a Tesla (Im not in the market for another sedan) but if I were my comparison would be something like the Accord.
But sure let's compare the F150 to the model Y: back in 2021 - a base F150 weighed about 4000lb, less than a base Model Y and an F150 supercab V6 F150 was <4500 lb. [1] A long range model Y weighs about a little bit less, but the difference is less than 100 lb.
Sure, I can configure the F150 to weigh 5500, but few need to and few do. So the point stands:
The Model Y weighs as much as a half ton truck.
Meanwhile a Ford Maverick, a truck Ford can't make enough to meet demand, weighs 3700 lb
> I dont get why we're comparing F150s to the Model Y.
Because one is the most popular gas car, the other the most popular EV. Removing an engine and adding batteries increases weight, sure, but that doesn't have anything to do with the average weight that's on the road. You have to tax things based on what's actually out there, not what _would_ be out there if you took the existing fleet and turned them EV. Batteries are expensive, so there's incentive not to use so much and make the car smaller and more efficient instead. That doesn't happen with gas cars.
> A long range model Y weighs about a little bit less, but the difference is less than 100 lb.
Yeah, I know. That's all I was saying. You said the average EV weighed more. In fact, it's less.
It is more stark than that, though. The most popular F150 in 2025 is the Lariat SuperCrew, which has a 5300 lb curb weight. The model Y has a curb weight of 4400 pounds.
The next most popular gas car is some Chevy pickup. The next more popular EV is the Model 3.
I can put EV tires on an ICE and get 100k miles out of the tires, but why would I? They suck.
The brake dust is a valid point but negated by hybrid drivetrains.
But it's all a wash. No one cares about externalities; neither the rich prog virtue signaling in an EV nor (obviously) the hick rolling coal. If they did there would be popular support for lowered speed limits and there isnt.
Are they being taxed more? Or is it that with gas cars, most of the tax is paid outside of registration, when they're refueled, whereas EVs only pay the taxes at registration time, and thus end up paying their share up front instead of over time?
That's because, I assume, you are adding in state gas tax, then comparing state registration to the proposed federal registration? Or some other combination. Somehow you are mixing and matching. We're all talking about federal taxes only. Obviously it's all different for every state.
Federal gas tax is $0.18. Gas registration is $0. New EV registration is $250. Or actually, it's looking like $500 now. That's like you driving your 30 mpg gas car 83,000 miles a year.
in VA we pay EV Tax (along with 87 other car taxes to keep driving on shitty roads…) - whatever your problem is when it comes to roads, more taxes ain’t gonna solve them
In short, the Republican Party is in bed with oil producers and many elected politicians are heavily invested in oil or oil-adjacent companies. The same party is anti-Science in a way that is nearly impossible to comprehend and, as such, scoffs at global warming and you can work the rest out from there. The Republicans have the majority in the House, the Senate and the Oval Office. The Supreme Court is conservative. Right now, we're probably the modern equivalent of Germany in 193x.
I think that about covers it. All of the above means an EV-hostile environment here.
Oh, and our biggest EV maker is a Neo-Nazi supporter.
There’s a lot of active thinking in the retail energy space about this. As we shift toward electric vehicles, the traditional 3-minute fuel stop evolves into a longer dwell time due to charging. This fundamentally changes the customer journey—transforming stations into destinations designed around convenience, entertainment, and productivity. However, with rapid advances in fast charging and even battery swapping, the future form of energy retail sites is still fluid. The big question remains: what should thousands of these locations become when the "refueling" experience is no longer just about speed?
Seems to me that some of the places that are best poised to take advantage of the longer charging times (at least in the US) are places like Buc-ees which are already a sort of destination that is visited for more than just filling up with gas. The small gas stations, especially ones that are local chains, or even 'mom-and-pop' businesses will probably be much slower to adapt as they won't be able to offer as much for the people waiting for a recharge to do.
I think fast casual restaurants, or even small strip malls which have a fast casual restaurant as a food anchor could also benefit from this -- offer more charging spots, maybe a small discount or coupon for the charging costs if you dine at the restaurant. The large fast casual chains could probably negotiate better contracts with companies that would build and administer the infrastructure than singular restaurants could, and it would help bring some additional business in at a time when people are dining out less and less.
I think you're overestimating the amount of stations we'll need (or maybe I'm underestimating it, let's find out). People tend to carry over habits from fossil fuel vehicles to electric ones, but there's a significant difference: You have a gas station at home. A very cheap one, and using it is as easy as plugging into a standard outlet. I drive electric and on most days I use a little less than half the battery charge. When I return home a standard outlet can get it back to full by the next morning; the only time I ever stop at a public charger is when I'm on a long trip, and those are few and far between.
I appreciate that not everybody will have the opportunity to charge their car at their own house, but a significant percentage will, and they're motivated to since it's by far the cheapest way to drive.
If the future doesn't get totally stupid, there will probably be a small decline in gas stations much like in areas where industry has dropped off.
There will still be fossil based fuel for sale.
There may depending on how soon the world gets over the big misconception that fuels made from plant oils have to be bio fuels - additional bowsers for regular fuel that was created though cracking (in the same petro-refineries) organic oil as the input stock to produce an almost identical fuel to that which is made from fossil based sources - it might cost a little bit more though.
Possibly an area for refuelling liquid based fuel cell powered vehicles.
I find it funny that the AI 2027 thing got a non-vanishing fraction of Hackernews folk to wonder if humans would be fully eradicated from Earth in 5 years (I was influenced too!)
Anyway, just funny to now be talking about gas stations in 15 years.
I've noticed in my particular region of the US, there's an attempt to move them somewhat upmarket-- instead of (or in addition to) the hot-dog roller there's a food counter preparing almost edible hot foods, the drinks machines have much wider choices (10-20 sodas and 8 coffee products instead of 6 sodas and two coffees)
Guessing the plan is that as EV charging replaces petrol purchases, they can reposition into the quick-meal market.
2040 feels far too soon for this thought experiment, at least in the U.S. ICEs will remain the primary vehicle for most families until charging networks are built out. 40-50 years is more realistic.
The charging network could be built out in 5 years... if there was money in it.
(No, don't ask me how that would work. I don't know. I just think that private enterprise could do it quite quickly, if they saw a way to turn a profit doing so.)
And the median car is 13 years old and getting older. If the market share is only 23% today, then in 2040 the fleet will still be overwhelmingly ICE-powered, unless the government starts pulling levers that accelerate the transition, like quadrupling the fuel taxes.
EV share of car sales is around 10%. 15 year is around a car lifetime. So in the future, the gas stations will look roughly the same as today but we'll have, maybe, 10 or 15% less of them.
I expect their will be more entertainment options at fueling stations, eateries, some modern form of putt-putt, or arcades, to keep you busy for longer.
Will have sections for electricity charging as well or battery swaps. I think most likely somekind of humanoid robots will operate these equipments. The mini mart likely still man by human. Perhaps a human mechanics with robo asistants if there is repairs available. Likely cryptos will be accepted as well (way more common than now). You might even find Tony's LC sign there (plot twist he opened factories in USA).
I must not be as optimistic as the rest of you all. After the third world world war (which has already started) concludes, I would not be surprised for gas stations to appear as depicted here: https://fallout.wiki/wiki/Pre-War_Gas_Stations
I think the split we see here will continue. Either you have cold stations that sell only fuel. Or you have large service station with food and such. Maybe with even more shopping floor space.
Not sure where you are, but hopefully we try harder to move away from cars in the US and adopt more rail (light, high-speed long distance, etc.) so in that world, they get replaced with housing or literally anything else.
Gas stations are almost all hazmat sites. The underground tanks leak and years of spills accumulate. They will need to excavate and remediate before housing could be built on the sites.
My guess is that they will be much the same as they are now, but perhaps with some charging stations added in. Maybe there will be fewer of them, maybe not.
You have to look into a camera and pledge allegiance to Baron Trump before the gas starts flowing. Insincere facial cues will be added to your permanent record.
HN is dumb as dog shit, at least Reddit has a million monkeys. What do you hope to achieve?
Step one: What is todays delta to 2010? It is a lot, so this is where smart people would start.
So we'll skip that.
Many cars bought today will be around. Many gas stations bought today will be around.
People will be driving further. Do we have to say for the stupid people it won't be electric.
People will be more isolated and not want human contact, digital payments from the pump standard. Food and beverages are as massive part of the profit. So what does that mean?
Automated fueling so your hands don't get dirty will exist. Cars will be able to communicate so they will queue you more efficiently.
There will be electric charging places. They are not "gas stations", you'll get a split. It's interesting to calculate what they would be. Land value vs time to recharge. They can be multistory. This is a whole other thing.
Not much. 15 years ago was 2010. Gas stations in 2025 are very similar to Gas stations from 2010. I doubt they will be too different in 2040. May be a few more EV chargers.
The ones they build here in Norway has changed somewhat from 2010. For one, mainly EV chargers, with just a few, if any, pumps.
Mostly sells food and soft drinks, so hot dogs, fresh sandwiches, baked goods, with much more seating area so you can sit and eat while your car charges.
Has almost no car-related stuff, just one or two small sections of blinker fluid, wunder-baum and such.
And looking at the current trend, there will be far fewer of them, mainly located at strategic positions. The small, local gas stations will go away.
I remember reading this piece of news some time ago[0]: “People may not know – BP sells coffee. We sold 150 million cups of coffee last year,” Bernard Looney said in an interview in August (2020), referring to beverage kiosks attached to the company’s fuel stations. “This is a very strong business. It’s a growth business.”
I remember I was impressed by this. The only country I drink gas-station-coffee is Finland (because where else can you find coffee in the middle of nowhere?). So right after I read that article, and the first time I saw a BP gas station I got a coffee. It was 'cheap' and I assume EUR per mg of caffeine was 'ok', but the quality/flavor.. omfg. Also, volcanic hot, so thanks but no thanks.
[0]: https://businesstech.co.za/news/energy/433444/bp-doesnt-just...
With the hot-dogs, fries, pizzas, snacks, milk, cereal, alcohol (in some countries), they remind me of "The Profit" with Marcus Lemonis, where he is trying to use each square-inch from a retail store to sell stuff.
Wait, blinker fluid is actually in stock in Norway? Gotta tell some BMW drivers I know; see if they can get it shipped over.
Just tell them to order it on Amazon ;)
https://www.amazon.com/Blinker-Fluid-16oz-Great-Prank/dp/B07...
Bah, that's just an empty bottle. Gotta read the fine print.
Weinermelange!
I would not be surprised if it looks more like Sam's Club, but otherwise the same. ie App with QR code scanner instead of Credit Card scanner.
That's like saying since newspapers in 1995 were very similar to newspapers in 1980, they'll be pretty much the same in 2010.
They were. Now newspapers in 1995 and 2010 - that’s definitely after the post-2000ish changes had started to bite.
I foresee an increase in displays showing ads, as well as cameras with facial recognition.
IMO gas stations haven’t changed all that much over the last 50 years (forget the 15) beyond:
- now having larger buildings to incorporate more convenience products (mostly foodstuffs) for sale - more pumps
That's pushing it around a decade too far back.
Today, every gas station is self-serve, and often you can pay by card at the pump.
50 years ago, plenty of gas stations still had attendants. One guy would fill the tank (possibly with 'leaded'), another might give your windshield a quick wipe. You could ask for them to check your oil, too.
Not too much has changed since the '80s though.
> often you can pay by card at the pump.
That’s definitely an innovation that creates convenience but does it really change the commercial function of the station much? You are still essentially transacting for fuel, which is what gas stations have done for decades. My guess is while a lot of stations provide that ability out of customer demand, but the owners would probably rather the customer come in and buy the over priced soda and Doritos along with the gas purchase. I don’t think owner-operators make hardly anything on the fuel sales.
With my comment I was thinking more along the lines of overall footprint of the station and what products are being sold. I think self-service pushed the ability for stations to service more pumps and with a person anchored to a register inside instead of outside attending to the pumps, it allowed the ability of stations to expand to more a mini-mart concept easily where more profitable products (to the station owner) are sold.
EV charging might help bring people into the food, but i suspect you don’t “turn tables” fast enough to make EV charging beneficial enough to bringing enough people inside to warrant devoting a lot of space to that activity.
In Oregon self-serve only became legal a few years ago so we still have plenty of full service stations and attendants to this day.
Gas stations often used to be car service stations as well. We have a few local ones with 3-4 car work garages attached but they are always closed now and used for storage.
It went from pay inside to pay-at-the-pump. That probably also led to the ability for more pumps at busy stations (w/o hiring more people).
In (the parts that I visited in) EU, it means some stations are completely attendant-less and cashless. Can fill up at 3AM in the boonies if you want.
North America has stuck to minimum of 1 staff at all times. No staff = closed.
Maybe that can change.
> North America has stuck to minimum of 1 staff at all times. No staff = closed.
Not true at all at least in California. I regularly fill at unattended stations late at night past midnight. The credit card operated pumps are operable 24/7.
Years ago we were traveling in remote areas of Nevada and running out of gas around 2am, desperately trying to find a gas station (this is before mobile phones, so couldn't just look things up, although maybe even today might be too remote for signal). Finally rolled into a small village with a gas station but everything was dark, so we thought we'll take a nap there until whenever they open. But I noticed the pump light was on, so I gave it a try. Yes, it worked!
They make no money with selling gas, and gas will run out. They make same way money as a cinema. In drinks and food.
And with the electric charging times people will certainly leave the car to shop for something.
So the exact opposite
I agree that they probably would benefit more from food sales off EV charging on a per vehicle basis, but they would need to turn over the chargers to new customers much quicker than what happens now for that to really benefit them.
2040 will be five years after the ban on petrol car sales in the EU, unless that is changed.
With cars lasting around 15 years, we can expect many gas stations to have closed by 2040.
And more hydrogen stations. Japan keeps investing in them a lot.
Hydrogen seems like going backwards into the future. For personal transport it surely is a dead end, there are no significant upsides to offset the large downsides compared to BEVs.
Perhaps it can work well for certain commercial niches, time will tell.
One upside is Japan having a large undersea hydrogen deposits. And those deposits are not going anywhere.
But personally I agree it's perfect for, say, urban trains, with predictable maintenance. But if Japan keeps investing we may see more than that.
That might help a lot in Japan.
Here in Norway we just have had a handful of hydrogen stations, and of those two went out of business.
Meanwhile almost all new cars here are BEV, even out in many rural areas BEVs are 50% of new sales.
A local store can relatively easily and cheaply install a supercharger. Installing a hydrogen pump is presumably much more expensive as it requires more space and more complex equipment. And it needs refilling by truck, while electricty just flows.
And while EV chargers or cars can catch fire during charging, hydrogen can explode violently[1][2] when mixed with air (the one in Norway registered as an earthquake 30 km, 20 miles, away).
As I said perhaps it will find some niche uses, but widescale adoptation seems very unlikely to me.
[1]: https://norwaytoday.info/news/explosion-sandvika-hydrogen-ta...
[2]: https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/transport/safety-concerns-gr...
I know my view will be affected by the UK being generally a small country...
most people aren't driving 200+ miles a day, which means 90% of charging will be at home.
Driving longer that 200 miles means you probably want a decent break. So I would imagine that most "local" places will disappear / pivot into shops with EV charging also.
Motorway services will also change I think. Fast food isnt as much of an appeal when you're stuck there for an hour or so anyway. So I could see a rise in retrain complexes with charging abilities.
possibly changes in behaviour will also affect things. If im traveling 4-6hrs in a day, id be ok with stopping of for an hour at a shopping centre where I could charge and also do some shopping, maybe let the kids play in a softplay or whatever
The first clever folks to stick a bull ring within 5 minutes drive of the M6 will 200+ charging points will do VERY well I think.
The process has already begun - UK petrol station numbers are down by a third since the beginning of the century.
As you say, they'll all but cease to exist in urban areas, with the process mostly complete by the end of the 2030s. I'm not sure that dedicated EV charging stations will be all that common in cities, though. Why not use existing car parks for that?
Some probably will end up being used as surface car parks where there's demand for it, but urban land values are such that I suspect most will be knocked down and replaced with apartments or larger retail units. A few may retain the forecourt structures as a form of kitsch (think of the florists beside Regents Park in London, or the Hyde Park Book Club in Leeds).
There'll probably be a growing niche for domestic fuel delivery services. You might also see a minor resurgence of the very small neighbourhood filling stations that mostly died out in the 1970s/80s - the sort of place that does MOT checks or tyre changes today. Some might end up installing a pump or two, to cater for vintage car enthusiasts.
I think vintage car enthusiasts will end up served by oil drums and a drum pump. That's already how petrol is delivered and distributed to small island communities.
Many cities will ban vintage cars from entering.
I basically have my car to get from the big city I live in, to a secondary city. I always buy my fuel in that secondary city because it’s always much cheaper.
> Many cities will ban vintage cars from entering.
They already have, no? ULEZ and such.
Fosse Park shopping center is practically on the M1 (Leicester) but only has 16 chargers. (Plus some at adjacent businesses like McDonald's).
This seems like an easy way for them to draw in customers.
Meadowhall in Sheffield is similarly close to the motorway, and has 36 chargers.
The gas station will be older, crappier. As the shift to electric cars takes hold new gas stations won’t be built, old ones won’t be renovated, and they’ll be squeezed harder. Expect more stuff to buy at worse prices with more advertising.
Chargers will likely rise up around a different type of venue that won’t be seen as a gas station. More cafes, places suitable to spend 15+ minutes. Places with seating.
Increasingly gas stations will just be seen as a dated concept that isn’t living up to the world of 2040. Otherwise they’ll be almost exactly the same as today.
I am seeing the exact opposite in Texas. Bucees's and QT are causing a lot of gas stations to up level both the amenities and merchandising. If anything the experience is getting a lot nicer. If you haven't been to a Bucee's you should.
I’m on board.
First I’d answer the question: should there be any gas stations at all? With self driving vehicles you could imagine a future where self driving gas dispensing trucks roam the highways to refill cars as they go.
Or instead of trucks you could imagine that the left lane on highways could be replaced by some kind of train on rails that your car could dock to. In that train you’d have the same crap you have in current gas stations: mostly toilets and food stuff.
Cars docking to stuff is something that really clicks with me, but you could really go one step further away. You could split cars between the part that runs and the part that carries passengers. The part that carries people could be some kind of capsule akin to a boat container that could be loaded onto something else. When on the highway, this cabin could be put on some giant train that would carry hundreds of these capsules and when you need to get off the highway, your capsule would be loaded on some independent single-capsule vehicle, that would drive you where you need to go.
It’s probably all terrible ideas because that would make everything a lot less resilient to problems in terms of operation, but you said sci fi :-)
Oh and yeah 15 years is way too short to see that kind of changes.
My prediction: 1) Yes, It'll sell gas but it'll also have electric stations. 2) Basic snacks and food but maybe more electric cigarettes lol 3) Only chips (either on your credit card, phone or under your skin) 4) Simplistic and white modern look 5) Cleaner restrooms as the robots clean every 30 min and no staff, more cameras with AI to detect anamoly and call 911 quickly.
In my experience Petrol stations are very smart operators that accumulate new business models very quickly.
My locals all:
Sell petrol
Sell snacks, meals and necessities (small convenience stores)
Sell firewood
Sell ice
Provide gas bottle swaps.
Sell large items that are convenient for ute tray transport (Slabs of drink and other items)
Provide free water and air, basic car wash facilities.
15 years from now I expect all of the above (It will take 20 years to get rid of petrol cars when the last one is sold)
Plus more common ev charging. Maybe battery swaps.
In the US at least, I feel like you hit that late 90s convenience experience.
While it's true they still do these things, or try to, in my experience nobody actually uses them because of understaffing and underpaying of employees to the point of them not caring.
Who wants a brown hot dog or dried out taquito that's been on a roller for who knows how many days? Who wants soda from moldy taps? Who wants to stand in line to change out propane, to be told there's only one person working, go out and wait til the line is gone? Air is still free, but you have to go in and ask for it to be turned on.
At least that's my experience, maybe each locale is different. I literally have never seen a person buy prepared food or exchange propane at a typical gas station(wawa/buckees excluded) in my adult life.
In Australia they have had a complete resurgence thanks to food delivery apps. Shit I even like our 7 Eleven petrol station coffee. And I am not the only one I often have to ask them to change the milk jugs over in the machine.
They are open 24/7 with just enough food at only triple supermarket prices.
Nearest 4 to me always have better than 50% empty gas bottles, and the second it gets cold they sell out of firewood.
2/3 of their air hoses have been vandalised however, which just leaves a line up at the third.
Is the air free in Aussie stations? In Canada it’s usually a charge and a $10 compressor you can store in your trunk will pay itself off and more reliably work when you need it (especially if you have a slow leak & need it frequently).
In a pinch I’ve used a bicycle pump (which is fine for a top up, not so much for fill-from-flat).
I havent seen a paid offering, but I would probably have paid rather than have driven to 3 looking for a working one.
> maybe each locale is different
It seems to be this. Many such stores near me offer a lot of prepared food (many thousands of calories at once on the heated display surface) and they’re not at loss-leader prices, so I have to assume it’s profitable.
> Provide free water and air, basic car wash facilities.
In the UK you have to pay for water and air pretty much everywhere now.
They start to disappear in cities replaced by parking spot fast chargers. Some remain for ICE engines but fewer of them. The ICE engines ones are as now as there is no need to innovate e.g. robots filling your fuel.
Between cities they will be as now a rest stop mainly with fuel. Maybe more charging where you park.
Whether we staff or not depends on if we adopt Japanese culture. In Tokyo they have unattended fast food shops, and somewhat novelty robot servers at some restaurants.
I predict 50% chance of that happening. It may be driven to buy robots and automation becoming cheaper than labour plus mass surveillance making it less appetizing to steal.
Speaking as an American.
They will be virtually identical, except that there will be far more ads. Perhaps stations in super urban areas will integrate AI into the pump, using your name and level 3 data to market to you hyper-specifically.
Also Arizona teas will no longer say 99¢ on the can.
I’m pretty close to spraying something into the speakers to destroy them. I had to get gas at an ad blasting station yesterday and got just 3 gallons and left.
Out of curiosity, what would you spray?
(Probably not a good idea, there are camera's everywhere.)
> Out of curiosity, what would you spray?
To take out speakers? Probably (closed cell) spray foam.
* https://www.lowes.com/pl/insulation-accessories/spray-foam-i...
I was thinking acetone might do it discreetly.
See article in today's New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/08/business/gas-station-expa...
Gas Stations Are Adding E.V. Chargers and Reasons to Wait Around
As gas stations prepare for more electric vehicles to be on the road, they’re getting bigger. That has created tension in some communities.
I'm reminded of when Blockbuster wiped out all the little video rental places. Even if existing gas stations install chargers, most EV drivers are going to prefer to charge someplace where it's nice to spend an hour or two, and whoever creates those places is going to take all the business.
Many places here in Germany have typically 1-2 parking spots dedicated to charging EV. (Free to use)
I believe increasing their number of chargers as the need arises is the main way this is going to develop. Basically no central gas station anymore as we know it but a shop with 1-2 chargers. If lots of shops do it, it becomes like decentralized charging.
Gas station convenience stores in Brazil have for the most part replaced regular convenience stores, especially outside regular work hours. Gas stations in Brazil tend to be well lit spaces with ample parking, surveillance and frequent police presence. I wouldn't be surprised if gas stations in the northern hemisphere become a little more like Brazilian gas stations as time goes by and urban violence increases in Europe, USA and Canada. I also don't buy on the inevitability of electric vehicles. I am pretty sure at least diesel and ethanol will be around for a long time.
They’ll probably keep dispensing hydrocarbon fuels. But we may see fuel stations migrate or integrate into other destinations a bit. Mostly Costco these days, but as we transition to electrically powered vehicles, we’ll see more charging + hydrocarbon fuel stations colocated with other businesses with linty of parking that also draw people for a significant amount of time, enough to charge an e-vehicle to significant degree.
A fascinating thought exercise. It mirrors a question we obsess over every day at my startup: "In 15 years, what will an 'office' visit look like?"
My bet for the gas station: they become high-density "Service Hubs." The main product won't be selling gas, but selling time and convenience back to the driver. Think ultra-fast EV charging bays, automated Amazon package return kiosks, a great coffee subscription service, and maybe even quick biometric health check pods. They'll be data-driven, hyper-efficient service points.
I believe the traditional office is facing the same existential shift. Its core "product" a desk to sit at from 9 to 5 is becoming as obsolete as the gasoline pump.
The "office" of the future isn't a physical place; it's a system. A Workspace OS where the most important flow isn't people commuting to a building, but information flowing seamlessly from conversation → to idea → to action. It's a space where an AI teammate handles the repetitive work (summarizing meetings, tracking tasks), freeing up humans to do the deep, creative work that truly matters.
So, in 2040, perhaps the best gas stations and the best offices will have one thing in common: you'll barely notice they're there. They'll just be a seamless, intelligent system that helps you get where you need to go whether that's across the country, or from a great idea to a finished product.
I feel the concept of EV charging might be democratized. These are the problems with EV stations:
It takes a while to charge up.
No matter what, only a very few people can be accommodated at once.
On the flip side, setting up a gas station is hard, but that’s not the case with EV charging stations — especially if battery swapping is innovated. It also takes time to deeply penetrate the market, but EV charging is much more suitable for two-wheelers.
So there’s a clear gap — the current gas stations can’t handle the volume of people waiting for EV charging. What is the way forward? I feel anyone with an EV charger can set up an EV charging station at home. This means all your malls, houses, and parks might be converted into EV charging stations, making it much more decentralized.
I anticipate that anyone with an EV charger and good parking space can make some extra bucks from it. I feel the whole idea of gas stations might be democratized. I’m not sure — this is just what I feel. Feel free to let me know your opinion.
Connecting EV charging stations to the grid is a significant problem. Balancing the peak grid maximum demand* against EV charging demand. While it may be okay to have a busy highway/motorway service station properly hooked up, it get's more difficult to apply that more broadly. How much charging capacity should a shopping centre provide? What about a occasionally-used sports venue?
I have worked with customers that have distribution centres in city locations to charge online-shopping vehicles overnight for the next day. All vehicles are plugged in and the software needs to charge different vehicles up at different times and rates, in order to spread the load.
It is far easier to dig a hole in the ground and fill a tank with delivered fuel - all the logistics for this already exists.
* Maximum demand is a well-known concept that relates to the maximum current draw in a 30-minute period, which is used to provide the necessary infrastructure from the electricity supplier.
will it sell gas?
Yes and especially diesel which will not go away for a few generations. There are no EV replacements for heavy trucks and they do not appear to be viable yet. 3500 through 7500 series. Battery tech will have to make science fiction level improvements. When those trucks are gone society comes to a stand-still. Comparison to earth moving equipment in mines do not apply.
what convenience items will it sell?
The popular versions of what they sell today and is known to bring in revenue.
who, if anyone, will staff it?
Mostly high-school kids, some people that do not have the confidence to move on and some with criminal backgrounds.
what payment methods will it accept?
Credit, Debit, Cash. Maybe bitcoin.
will it offer new services?
If they have the parking lot space then there may be battery swap stations to quickly swap out EV packs, offer paid upgrades to newer batteries and battery tech every few years.
> There are no EV replacements for heavy trucks and they do not appear to be viable yet.
Janus Electric has been converting prime movers to electric since 2019, listed on the ASX this year, and have demonstrated viability.
* https://primemovermag.com.au/body-electric/
* https://www.januselectric.com.au/news/janus-unveils-first-el...
* https://www.januselectric.com.au/
So far they've barely made a dent in global big truck numbers but they're planning to expand over the next few years .. and there are others in the same business.
> Comparison to earth moving equipment in mines do not apply.
Why not? These fleets have been quasi electric since the 1970s, have serious ongoing research into fully renewable replacement paths, and are responsible for a massive chunk of transport fuel usage given the sheer number of mines in the world and numbers such as iron ore mining in one Australia state alone accounting for > than a billion tonnes moved by trucks alone (including overburden, etc).
These aren't trucks that refuel at gas stations, but they are a considerable sink for fossil fuels.
Why not? These fleets have been quasi electric since the 1970s
They move slowly on dedicated predictable paths all controlled by the same system that choreographs their movements, controls who goes in for system charges. Some of them are EV in the sense they use electricity but they have no batteries. More of them now have batteries but they can in no way be compared to the usage patterns of human use cases. This is why batteries have been viable for them since the 70's. Massive inefficient monsters on slow moving controlled paths. Some of them charge whilst moving using massive cables laid out in the roads in the mine. In a mine slow and steady wins the race. In the rest of the world it would be chaos or more specifically not viable.
Big-rigs also make sense as the fleet owned and controlled trucks can charge at dedicated yards and will all move in coordinated efforts.
There are still no viable 3500 through 7500 series trucks operated by small to medium business owners and those run the short haul of many industries in the USA. As such the diesel versions of them will be around for a very long time. I keep an eye on battery tech for my own selfish reasons and have yet to see anything that would power those trucks without pushing them over their weight limits to the point of making them legally unusable. As is business owners skirt the line when they are on the scales. Heavy batteries would require them to cut their loads and effectively also eat their profits and waste a lot of their time making multiple trips. If they become viable I will see it right away as I am surrounded by them and business owners will do what makes financial sense. I will be the first to change opinions on this when it is a profitable option.
The closest I have yet to see in Science Fiction levels of battery improvement is 3D printed solid state batteries and they have a long way to go just to make it into tools, cell phones, etc... That needed to happen a decade ago if we want to see them in big trucks within 15 years. I would love to be proven wrong ... for my own selfish reasons unrelated to electric vehicles.
I already don't go to gas stations.
I have a really hard time understanding the pushback to elctrification.
Very fewe people (like almost none) drive more than 300 miles in a day 8-/
Most people in the plains states where the resistance is highest, live in single family homes where they could easily charge overnight.
Do you live somewhere in the east where states are close together? If I want to travel across my state, I'd have to plan a recharge somewhere along the way for nearly any electric vehicle. To fill up with gas would take ten minutes; as far as I can tell, any EV is going to take >30 minutes. Not saying that's a gating factor, but it's certainly something to consider. Likewise in states with more continental weather, there also appears to be some concern about extreme cold causing issues with charging and/or battery service life.
More advertising, more intrusive tracking and personal information collection (mandatory membership in something, swipe your license or scan some biometric, no cash options), more expensive gas. More nagging from your car about things that aren't even on your radar now.
The ones in towns will mostly disappear. There will be enough chargers at supermarkets, malls, restaurants, anywhere people actually want to go, and most people will charge at home or work. The remaining business won't be enough to keep in-town gas stations in business. Range anxiety will become more of an issue for gas cars.
On highways, it will be a different situation. There will be plenty of gas and diesel still available, as the remaining business from towns becomes more concentrated. You won't find a gas station without a restaurant attached though. Fast chargers will be common, but ultra-fast ones won't be as common as we'd like, as they will want to keep you just long enough to buy a meal, etc.
Have a look at Norway:
"many service center operators are removing one or more gas pumps and installing EV chargers instead. According to Bloomberg Hyperdrive, at the Uno-X Furuset service area on the outskirts of Oslo, four gas pumps have become three. ... At some service areas, the fuel pumps are all being removed to make way for EV chargers. "
https://cleantechnica.com/2025/03/28/trading-gas-pumps-for-e...
Such a cool question! My perspective as a Lithuanian:
I think they will continue to sell both petrol and diesel in 15 years. I think gas (we have some cars running on literally gas) will not be there anymore. There will be more EV chargers, I would think in every station.
I would think in 15 years someone will try and succeed to create a "destination gas station", like a cool restaurant, that people will go out of their route to visit.
I don't think we will be on self driving trucks in 15 years. But once we get there, gas stations will service them in whatevet service they will need.
> I would think in 15 years someone will try and succeed to create a "destination gas station", like a cool restaurant, that people will go out of their route to visit.
This has already happened in the U.S. Southeast. It's called "Bucc-ee's". They're very large gas stations with 50+ pumps. They have a squirrel for a mascot and sometimes if you go there's someone dressed up as the mascot there.
Inside, it's not a traditional restaurant but they're well known for selling barbecue (e.g. brisket). They also have large sections of the inner store dedicated to selling lots of rustic and outdoor type things that you'd traditionally get at a department store--things like grills, tents, etc.
It's a destination for sure.
Interesting Q - though I predict they will largely look the same. They may have more battery charging stations or replacement batteries (especially for stations on an interstate) but otherwise I think it will just be a nicer version of what we have today. Maybe higher quality hot food and more interesting snacks, which I think we are already seeing today with new stations.
Most gas stations today only have one employee at a time so it seems hard to cut that down (and not much incentive tbh).
Electric cars today are still under 10%. Cars last a really long time, so even if there is a huge surge in electric self-driving cars by 2030 there will still be lots of ICE cars on the road in 15 years.
By 2040, I suspect not much will have changed. In the US, most engines that required leaded gasoline rolled off the assembly lines in the 1960s, with the legal phase-out beginning in the 1970s, and finally ending in the 1990s.
As I have a classic car that I intend to keep running, I suspect eventually (e.g. not by 2040), buying fuel for it will be similar to buying pre-mixed fuel for small two-stroke engines, like leafblowers and chainsaws: go to Auto Zone and buy a few gallons of fuel. Auto Zone and friends won't be going anywhere - EVs still need wiper blades, brake pads, and other incidentals.
It is hard to predict a new advancement in EV technology, but if we get to a point where an EV is cheaper than the equivalent ICE and charges faster than you can gas up (so about twice as fast as the fastest EV today), and has a longer range than the equivalent ICE, then people will buy more of them. Then we will start to see more EV chargers than gas stations.
Advancements in AI might make it possible to have attendant-less stations if you can have automated sales of snacks and other merchandise, and automated payments for chargers and gas, maybe you don't need an attendant on duty 24/7
Automated payment is already very much the norm. Just put in your credit card before refueling.
Vending machines solved the automated snack sales decades ago, except for the restocking.
I meant that a lot of people still pay cash for gas, but a move toward more electronic payments or at least an automated cash kiosk would let you get rid of those last use cases for a human attendant to take cash
And they’ll need to be as cheap or cheaper than an ICE car :)
They already are significantly cheaper than ICE in China, the rest of the world won't be far behind.
Automobile marketshare for battery electric vehicles (BEV) in China reached 27% in 2024, compared to 13% in the EU and 8% in the US.
Wow I didn’t realize adoption was so high in China
https://www.bcg.com/publications/2025/what-chinas-ev-market-...
It’s very exciting imho, uptake of EVs and hybrids in China is contributing to noticeable oil demand destruction, and Chinese oil companies have already called the demand peak.
https://cleantechnica.com/2024/11/21/the-us-energy-informati...
https://www.iea.org/commentaries/oil-demand-for-fuels-in-chi...
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/CNPC-Chin...
If you include PHEV, it's over 50% now: https://www.techinasia.com/news/china-sets-record-with-new-e...
Somewhere in a photo album is a picture of my mother-in-law standing in front of a gas station 20-30 years ago. It was odd. Why stage this photo here? It didn't seem like a particularly pretty or special gas station.
I asked her about it, and she said she was thinking about how this common thing will probably disappear or look very different in the future, and it would be interesting to take a photo before it's gone.
Alas, the photo is still of a boring place that exists everywhere.
They will follow the Buceee's model. It's not about the gas. It's about amenities and merchandising. Because of the amount of pumps, they would make a perfect fit for lots of electric chargers as well if they wanted to convert. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WksA55t6f9o
I'm hoping it'll be like the GridServe electric forecourts in the UK: a place to charge your car, have a snack, do a bit of shopping or relax, or rent an office pod for a few hours. Wishful thinking, maybe, but what good is trying to peer into the future without a bit of that kind of thinking?
https://www.gridserve.com/electric-vehicle-charging/electric...
A lounge. There are too many today, tens of thousands will close. Most charging will take place at home or at work. EVs support payment by VIN with crypto primitives negotiating with the charger over the charger cable before charging starts, so how ever you’ll fund that balance (likely instant payments).
https://www.axios.com/2022/07/15/gas-stations-prices-closing
I agree that the petrol/diesel niche will increasingly shrink, but it could take decades to vanish.
Perhaps some larger chain will step in, and incorporate one dinky petrol station at each location? The safety issues probably rule out a chain restaurant, but maybe Walmart will become the go-to.
Walmart is installing EV chargers at thousands of their locations. Tesla colocated at Meijer, some Targets, etc. Grocery stores, airports (Chattanooga airport hosts a Tesla charging station), anywhere people go today and there is power can be one.
Petrol won’t go away overnight, but it will reach tipping points where it’s no longer cost effective to deliver it to areas or host a petrol station once an inflection point occurs with regards to demand.
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/how-big-a-deal-is-walmarts-p...
https://corporate.walmart.com/news/2023/04/06/leading-the-ch...
https://www.plugshare.com/
https://supercharge.info/map
https://electrek.co/2023/10/20/cratering-motor-fuel-sales-in... (great comment on this: “Every day in the U.S. now there is enough EVs sold to displace an entire gas station-worth of fuel. Per day. And this is rapidly accelerating.”)
> The safety issues probably rule out a chain restaurant, but maybe Walmart will become the go-to
From a month and a half ago: "Walmart plans EV Charging network which will blanket the US within a few years" [1]
[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43814380
most people certainly do not live in a place that has a garage with dedicated charging port. people who leave their cars outside to charge will be subject to vandalism and pranksters cutting/disconnecting the cables. electric vehicles are luxury vehicles for people with means.
In 2023, the U.S. had approximately 85.3 million single-family detached homes and 8.2 million single-family attached homes, totaling around 93.5 million single-family homes. This represents the majority of the nation's housing stock.
Rebates exist for a reason to install EV chargers at home. Certainly, it will take time, but the transition is inevitable at this point. The average daily round trip commute is less than 40 miles, which is ~12 hours of charging on a 15A 120V household outlet. Electricity is ubiquitous, and installing interfaces is relatively inexpensive and straightforward.
This is certainly very location dependent. Where I live, outside parking is the norm, with lots of people either charging EVs or pre-heating their engine without being subjected to any vandalism.
At least in the Bay Area it’s pretty common for people to park their car on the curb in front of their house and run a charge cable out over the sidewalk. Mostly just works.
*Parts of the Bay Area.
There are parts where you'd have people drive through the neighborhood at 3am and yank/cut the charging cables for the copper in them.
Alright, even if I were to grant this without reservation this doesn't get us back to the GP's assertion that electric vehicles are luxury cars for a select segment of the population.
Most countries will have fast chargers with one gas pump for the remaining ICE cars. That’s already happening in Norway, for example.
The US? After a decade plus of authoritarian rule and the near outlaw of EVs, we’ll have exactly the same gas stations and cars, all produced right here because the rest of the world doesn’t want them.
It’ll be a throwback culture desperately trying to cling to the tired myth of 1950s white suburban American supremacy while China leads the way into the future with bullet trains, fast charging electric cars and solar everywhere.
Can you explain to me about the near outlaw of EVs?
I should also mention that a large percentage of the population is in love with ICE-mobiles. They transport the ever-shrinking middle class and lower classes that can't afford to completely replace their vehicles with EVs and, likely, never will be. Even the world's ugliest electric truck is beyond the reach of a large portion of the middle class. Removing gas stations and adding charging stations is not going to do anything except cause more panic.
NGL, I drive a gas-powered Jetta (I wish it was diesel, but oh well) and if I can't get gas, I can't drive. While I'm lucky enough to live where there's some sort of public transit, that's not a thing in a lot of cities. Without the political will or the budget to start adding public transportation RIGHT THE HELL NOW, if ICE goes away, our economy is screwed.
The new budget that passed the house has registration fees on EVs that will only match gas cars if you drive well over 25,000 miles a year. Maybe "outlaw" was hyperbolic, but you tax what you want less of. I would imagine that these taxes will only increase. Especially compared to the _incentives_ offered in every other country.
We don't "outlaw" cigarettes, for example, but I would call the current taxes on them a "near" outlaw.
You tax to finance government services. EV use roads but don't pay fuel taxes.
We can debate how much EVs should be taxed, but they're using the bloody roads, aren't they?
My point is that there's no reason to tax them more than gas cars. Gas cars create FAR more negative externalities. I'm not saying they shouldn't be taxed at all; sorry if you got that impression.
EVs tend to weigh more and cause a higher degree of microplastic emission and road wear.
HN is usually happy to remind everyone that the damage a vehicle causes to a road scales with the fourth power of its weight. A Tesla model 3 is about triple the wear on the road surface compared to a Toyota Camry.
The average gas car is an F150, and the average EV is a Model Y. EVs don’t tend to weigh more. And the tire microplastic thing is misinformation with zero evidence. The only evidence we have is the drastically reduced brake wear (and dust) on EVs.
Obviously the higher mass and torque of the EV causes more microplastics. This is basic materials science and the reason why EVs need tougher tires.
I dont get why we're comparing F150s to the Model Y. When Im looking to buy a truck, Im not considering the Model Y (although In peeved the Ranger isnt hybrid). I have never considered a Tesla (Im not in the market for another sedan) but if I were my comparison would be something like the Accord.
But sure let's compare the F150 to the model Y: back in 2021 - a base F150 weighed about 4000lb, less than a base Model Y and an F150 supercab V6 F150 was <4500 lb. [1] A long range model Y weighs about a little bit less, but the difference is less than 100 lb.
Sure, I can configure the F150 to weigh 5500, but few need to and few do. So the point stands:
The Model Y weighs as much as a half ton truck.
Meanwhile a Ford Maverick, a truck Ford can't make enough to meet demand, weighs 3700 lb
[1] https://media.ford.com/content/dam/fordmedia/North%20America...
> This is basic materials science and the reason why EVs need tougher tires.
Exactly. Tires are formulated to the load they are designed to carry. It's why semis don't have to make a pit stop every 2 miles for new tires.
But, like I said, brake dust is _far_ worse, and nearly eliminated with EVs:
https://electrek.co/2025/05/27/another-way-electric-cars-cle...
> I dont get why we're comparing F150s to the Model Y.
Because one is the most popular gas car, the other the most popular EV. Removing an engine and adding batteries increases weight, sure, but that doesn't have anything to do with the average weight that's on the road. You have to tax things based on what's actually out there, not what _would_ be out there if you took the existing fleet and turned them EV. Batteries are expensive, so there's incentive not to use so much and make the car smaller and more efficient instead. That doesn't happen with gas cars.
> A long range model Y weighs about a little bit less, but the difference is less than 100 lb.
Yeah, I know. That's all I was saying. You said the average EV weighed more. In fact, it's less.
It is more stark than that, though. The most popular F150 in 2025 is the Lariat SuperCrew, which has a 5300 lb curb weight. The model Y has a curb weight of 4400 pounds.
The next most popular gas car is some Chevy pickup. The next more popular EV is the Model 3.
I can put EV tires on an ICE and get 100k miles out of the tires, but why would I? They suck.
The brake dust is a valid point but negated by hybrid drivetrains.
But it's all a wash. No one cares about externalities; neither the rich prog virtue signaling in an EV nor (obviously) the hick rolling coal. If they did there would be popular support for lowered speed limits and there isnt.
Are they being taxed more? Or is it that with gas cars, most of the tax is paid outside of registration, when they're refueled, whereas EVs only pay the taxes at registration time, and thus end up paying their share up front instead of over time?
The new budget that passed the house has registration fees on EVs that will only match gas cars if you drive well over 25,000 miles a year.
Though it’s actually about 35,000 miles. I did the math wrong.
ICEs aren't taxed to punish their externalities, but to finance roads.
Suffice it to say that if all cars magically became EVs something in the tax code would have to change to pay for road maintence.
True. There would need to be a registration fee of about 100 bucks. The rest is paid for by everyone, driver or not. Gas taxes don’t even come close.
You're not covering for the loss of the gas tax with $100/year registration.
Nowhere close.
In my corner of America the gas tax comes out to be $0.96/gal, or $480/year if you only drive 15k miles and average 30 mpg.
That's because, I assume, you are adding in state gas tax, then comparing state registration to the proposed federal registration? Or some other combination. Somehow you are mixing and matching. We're all talking about federal taxes only. Obviously it's all different for every state.
Federal gas tax is $0.18. Gas registration is $0. New EV registration is $250. Or actually, it's looking like $500 now. That's like you driving your 30 mpg gas car 83,000 miles a year.
in VA we pay EV Tax (along with 87 other car taxes to keep driving on shitty roads…) - whatever your problem is when it comes to roads, more taxes ain’t gonna solve them
If you're gathering the resources and you still have bad roads, then that's a problem of Virginians inability to govern well.
Which, as an American largely being governed by Virginians, I cant say Im surprised.
In short, the Republican Party is in bed with oil producers and many elected politicians are heavily invested in oil or oil-adjacent companies. The same party is anti-Science in a way that is nearly impossible to comprehend and, as such, scoffs at global warming and you can work the rest out from there. The Republicans have the majority in the House, the Senate and the Oval Office. The Supreme Court is conservative. Right now, we're probably the modern equivalent of Germany in 193x.
I think that about covers it. All of the above means an EV-hostile environment here.
Oh, and our biggest EV maker is a Neo-Nazi supporter.
More EV docks outside, more products from YouTubers and influencers inside. Maybe no cigarettes.
They'll probably devote the shelf-space to vapes and snus.
There’s a lot of active thinking in the retail energy space about this. As we shift toward electric vehicles, the traditional 3-minute fuel stop evolves into a longer dwell time due to charging. This fundamentally changes the customer journey—transforming stations into destinations designed around convenience, entertainment, and productivity. However, with rapid advances in fast charging and even battery swapping, the future form of energy retail sites is still fluid. The big question remains: what should thousands of these locations become when the "refueling" experience is no longer just about speed?
Seems to me that some of the places that are best poised to take advantage of the longer charging times (at least in the US) are places like Buc-ees which are already a sort of destination that is visited for more than just filling up with gas. The small gas stations, especially ones that are local chains, or even 'mom-and-pop' businesses will probably be much slower to adapt as they won't be able to offer as much for the people waiting for a recharge to do.
I think fast casual restaurants, or even small strip malls which have a fast casual restaurant as a food anchor could also benefit from this -- offer more charging spots, maybe a small discount or coupon for the charging costs if you dine at the restaurant. The large fast casual chains could probably negotiate better contracts with companies that would build and administer the infrastructure than singular restaurants could, and it would help bring some additional business in at a time when people are dining out less and less.
I think you're overestimating the amount of stations we'll need (or maybe I'm underestimating it, let's find out). People tend to carry over habits from fossil fuel vehicles to electric ones, but there's a significant difference: You have a gas station at home. A very cheap one, and using it is as easy as plugging into a standard outlet. I drive electric and on most days I use a little less than half the battery charge. When I return home a standard outlet can get it back to full by the next morning; the only time I ever stop at a public charger is when I'm on a long trip, and those are few and far between.
I appreciate that not everybody will have the opportunity to charge their car at their own house, but a significant percentage will, and they're motivated to since it's by far the cheapest way to drive.
But maybe I'm missing something?
Your commont really sounds like it came from ChatGPT.
Including emdashes.
If the future doesn't get totally stupid, there will probably be a small decline in gas stations much like in areas where industry has dropped off.
There will still be fossil based fuel for sale.
There may depending on how soon the world gets over the big misconception that fuels made from plant oils have to be bio fuels - additional bowsers for regular fuel that was created though cracking (in the same petro-refineries) organic oil as the input stock to produce an almost identical fuel to that which is made from fossil based sources - it might cost a little bit more though.
Possibly an area for refuelling liquid based fuel cell powered vehicles.
I find it funny that the AI 2027 thing got a non-vanishing fraction of Hackernews folk to wonder if humans would be fully eradicated from Earth in 5 years (I was influenced too!)
Anyway, just funny to now be talking about gas stations in 15 years.
I've noticed in my particular region of the US, there's an attempt to move them somewhat upmarket-- instead of (or in addition to) the hot-dog roller there's a food counter preparing almost edible hot foods, the drinks machines have much wider choices (10-20 sodas and 8 coffee products instead of 6 sodas and two coffees)
Guessing the plan is that as EV charging replaces petrol purchases, they can reposition into the quick-meal market.
2040 feels far too soon for this thought experiment, at least in the U.S. ICEs will remain the primary vehicle for most families until charging networks are built out. 40-50 years is more realistic.
The charging network could be built out in 5 years... if there was money in it.
(No, don't ask me how that would work. I don't know. I just think that private enterprise could do it quite quickly, if they saw a way to turn a profit doing so.)
Depends where. EVs are already 23% of light vehicle sales in California. The US won’t transition equally.
And the median car is 13 years old and getting older. If the market share is only 23% today, then in 2040 the fleet will still be overwhelmingly ICE-powered, unless the government starts pulling levers that accelerate the transition, like quadrupling the fuel taxes.
EV adoption is incredibly uneven. It makes predictions really difficult.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/electric-car-sales-share
EV share of car sales is around 10%. 15 year is around a car lifetime. So in the future, the gas stations will look roughly the same as today but we'll have, maybe, 10 or 15% less of them.
I expect their will be more entertainment options at fueling stations, eateries, some modern form of putt-putt, or arcades, to keep you busy for longer.
Will have sections for electricity charging as well or battery swaps. I think most likely somekind of humanoid robots will operate these equipments. The mini mart likely still man by human. Perhaps a human mechanics with robo asistants if there is repairs available. Likely cryptos will be accepted as well (way more common than now). You might even find Tony's LC sign there (plot twist he opened factories in USA).
https://www.epa.gov/ust/petroleum-brownfields
I must not be as optimistic as the rest of you all. After the third world world war (which has already started) concludes, I would not be surprised for gas stations to appear as depicted here: https://fallout.wiki/wiki/Pre-War_Gas_Stations
a lot more in number. folks in developing countries are buying gas cars in record numbers. huge opportunity
In the USA at least they'll look exactly the same as today. Probably more advertising, but that's about it.
Great question. Hopefully Alex and his team will help usher in a new change with Maggie's https://maggiesrefuel.com/about/
I think the split we see here will continue. Either you have cold stations that sell only fuel. Or you have large service station with food and such. Maybe with even more shopping floor space.
I doubt that gasoline cars will go away.
Not sure where you are, but hopefully we try harder to move away from cars in the US and adopt more rail (light, high-speed long distance, etc.) so in that world, they get replaced with housing or literally anything else.
Gas stations are almost all hazmat sites. The underground tanks leak and years of spills accumulate. They will need to excavate and remediate before housing could be built on the sites.
The big brands are doing that. In my area, Mobil remediated the sites and sold them off.
Railways take 10-15 years to plan and build, so unless they are in play right now I highly doubt you will see anymore in the future
Rail isn't gonna do anything to help suburbs and rural areas. Nor even cities, if they are spread out like LA.
The gas stations of today are merely the vape/weed shops of tomorrow.
That depends on 2 critical factors:
1. Whether the commercial nuclear fusion is gonna be invented
2. Whether the new type of battery is gonna be invented by then
My guess is that they will be much the same as they are now, but perhaps with some charging stations added in. Maybe there will be fewer of them, maybe not.
toilets. there will always be toilets.
There are going to be charging malls in the middle of nowhere. That’s about the only major change I expect. Think buckies or similar
Yes, no idea, people, cc and mobile payment, probably digital, yes.
The current arc is one of more integration with prepared food related business and that will likely continue going forward.
It will mostly be the same. The gas station will provide fast DC charging for BEVs and perhaps hydrogen fuel.
would be cool if it was like an automated F1 pitstop - roll in, refuel, auto pay, roll out
> In 15 years, what will a gas station visit look like?
Car parks.
We will be expected to tip at self serve fuel pumps
More gas stations will sell bubble tea.
Um.. I'd say there maybe a wake up call during these 15 years like a storm that the EV drivers cannot run from (because the range wouldn't let them).
I wonder what's it gonna be then??? Government busses?
You have to look into a camera and pledge allegiance to Baron Trump before the gas starts flowing. Insincere facial cues will be added to your permanent record.
HN is dumb as dog shit, at least Reddit has a million monkeys. What do you hope to achieve?
Step one: What is todays delta to 2010? It is a lot, so this is where smart people would start.
So we'll skip that.
Many cars bought today will be around. Many gas stations bought today will be around.
People will be driving further. Do we have to say for the stupid people it won't be electric.
People will be more isolated and not want human contact, digital payments from the pump standard. Food and beverages are as massive part of the profit. So what does that mean?
Automated fueling so your hands don't get dirty will exist. Cars will be able to communicate so they will queue you more efficiently.
There will be electric charging places. They are not "gas stations", you'll get a split. It's interesting to calculate what they would be. Land value vs time to recharge. They can be multistory. This is a whole other thing.
I 'vouched' for that since, despite the freak-out at its start, it makes some interesting points.