This level of intensity of fear over small pull backs makes me think the big one is coming. You’ve created a house of cards and doused it in gasoline so you’re obsessed with even the tiniest spark because it’ll blow it all up. If you invested in the productive economy that isn’t scams you wouldn’t have this problem. Stop making life worse for normal people.
My money is on a 10-20% pullback within a year. The valuations (besides palantir and tesla) aren't really that crazy. Nvidia is producing real stuff and real people are using these so called scams because they find them helpful, for example.
Now, as for the possibility of the "big one". I think there's a 25%+ chance of that in the next 2-5 years, likely bigger than anything before. But it won't be because of a scam.
It increasingly looks like the bill for inequality papered over with quantitative easing is going to come due at some point soon, the spark is debatable.
Asset valuations are approaching feudal levels, where large portions of the population are relegated to perpetual debt service and locked out of asset purchases - while another portion gets to make up the valuations because they are close to the money printer. Such a system is stable until it isn't.
Bullishness on the market seems like a really sinister force at the moment, because what I equate their bullishness to is destroying society so investors / rich people can get just a little more even if a lot of people suffer along the way
At a certain point of inequality, the valuation is whatever the person with all the money says it is. If there are fewer than 100 people holding the reigns of capital, do you still live in a capitalist system?
On a serious note, I am more worried about people who have their retirement funds in these, I genuinely think that its going to impact the whole world and not only just America.
History doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes.
I don't know but why do people not listen to the tune then? I was saying similar stuff like this simply because I read one thing in my life about investing which sorta changed my life, investing grows not because free money but because market is efficient and you get part of that efficiency. Deep down, a company has to get efficient or more profitable in long term to make their valuation make sense yet AI had none of these things and in my opinion, it never would.
I use AI, to test out new ideas I don't know about, to try to solve something I am interested about, but I still wouldn't bet on it simply because its business model for profit is broken.
“ simply because its business model for profit is broken.”
Remember the days when Google was looking for a business model? I do. It’s probably going to be ads. But you’ll still gets ads for toilet seats after you searched for a place to buy that once in a decade toilet seat. They’ll hit the bottom of the barrel and maybe dethrone google. I don’t know.
I use llms pretty much as a search engine and refreshing some programming tips. It’s over-confident for code review, doesn’t really handle arithmetic and sometimes fun as a co-writer for embedded stuff.
This level of intensity of fear over small pull backs makes me think the big one is coming. You’ve created a house of cards and doused it in gasoline so you’re obsessed with even the tiniest spark because it’ll blow it all up. If you invested in the productive economy that isn’t scams you wouldn’t have this problem. Stop making life worse for normal people.
My money is on a 10-20% pullback within a year. The valuations (besides palantir and tesla) aren't really that crazy. Nvidia is producing real stuff and real people are using these so called scams because they find them helpful, for example.
Now, as for the possibility of the "big one". I think there's a 25%+ chance of that in the next 2-5 years, likely bigger than anything before. But it won't be because of a scam.
> Stop making life worse for normal people.
Job seekers now have to "tolerate" interviews with AI bots, I don't even know when to laugh or cry anymore https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ng_Bj7tVw78
Either that or this is people's pensions just ahead of what is likely the bill of Trump's policies being presented ...
It increasingly looks like the bill for inequality papered over with quantitative easing is going to come due at some point soon, the spark is debatable.
Asset valuations are approaching feudal levels, where large portions of the population are relegated to perpetual debt service and locked out of asset purchases - while another portion gets to make up the valuations because they are close to the money printer. Such a system is stable until it isn't.
Bullishness on the market seems like a really sinister force at the moment, because what I equate their bullishness to is destroying society so investors / rich people can get just a little more even if a lot of people suffer along the way
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Who are these omnipotent people who determine valuations?
At a certain point of inequality, the valuation is whatever the person with all the money says it is. If there are fewer than 100 people holding the reigns of capital, do you still live in a capitalist system?
Do investors ever say "ok, time to panic"? Aren't they always just going to shill their bags? Why should we listen to them?
They do, but generally as they shoot past your office window in free fall.
cant wait
the time they want you to panic is after they do. their words will never say that it's time to panic, but their actions may already be saying that
> There was no obvious trigger for the pullback
It was probably Michael Burry.
It would also explain why the movie was recommended to me yesterday in netflix.
it seems the stars have aligned then.
On a serious note, I am more worried about people who have their retirement funds in these, I genuinely think that its going to impact the whole world and not only just America.
History doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes.
I don't know but why do people not listen to the tune then? I was saying similar stuff like this simply because I read one thing in my life about investing which sorta changed my life, investing grows not because free money but because market is efficient and you get part of that efficiency. Deep down, a company has to get efficient or more profitable in long term to make their valuation make sense yet AI had none of these things and in my opinion, it never would.
I use AI, to test out new ideas I don't know about, to try to solve something I am interested about, but I still wouldn't bet on it simply because its business model for profit is broken.
I use llms pretty much as a search engine and refreshing some programming tips. It’s over-confident for code review, doesn’t really handle arithmetic and sometimes fun as a co-writer for embedded stuff.
https://youtu.be/cJm0i4gEp8I?si=RQ4Gditv46RenD2v [video]
I've reduced usage and spend in response to them forcing it in too many places
I like my coding assistant and deep.research, but loathe that so many pages have ai callouts or in platform ads which take up large amounts of space.
Noticed yesterday Jira is now hiding comments and pushing their AI summarizer, leading me to "conspiracy theories"
"Please don't sell, I've way overinvested my firms money on these useless chatbots!"
They'd most likely even write this message that you wrote with those useless chatbots lol. They wouldn't even bother writing it themselves.
It's mostly harmless
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