At some point China will print enough EVs at scale that they push legacy auto to failure. China sells >50% EVs and hybrids (NEVs) at current run rates. The last 50% will not take as long as the first 50% (S curve). Volkswagen is laying off 50k workers due to their lack of competitiveness against China EVs.
The path to success is to most rapidly get combustion vehicle manufacturer and the fossil supply chain to their death spirals through demand destruction. How fast we get there is a function of change of rate in velocity of global EV sales.
Adapt to an EV future or die as a going concern. North American sales are lagging because of protectionism and low value for EVs on offer from domestic manufacturers. This will likely change as Congress turns over back to Democrats over the next several years, and clean tech policies are supported again.
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At some point China will print enough EVs at scale that they push legacy auto to failure. China sells >50% EVs and hybrids (NEVs) at current run rates. The last 50% will not take as long as the first 50% (S curve). Volkswagen is laying off 50k workers due to their lack of competitiveness against China EVs.
The path to success is to most rapidly get combustion vehicle manufacturer and the fossil supply chain to their death spirals through demand destruction. How fast we get there is a function of change of rate in velocity of global EV sales.
Adapt to an EV future or die as a going concern. North American sales are lagging because of protectionism and low value for EVs on offer from domestic manufacturers. This will likely change as Congress turns over back to Democrats over the next several years, and clean tech policies are supported again.
Auto groups urge Trump to keep Chinese carmakers out of US- https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/auto-i... - March 13th, 2026
Volkswagen to cut 50,000 jobs as China offers cheaper electric cars - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/03/10/volkswagen-t... - March 10th, 2026
Our World In Data: Tracking global data on electric vehicles - https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales
IEA: Global EV Data Explorer - https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/global-ev...