This will be huge. Companies like Hims and Ro charge thousands of dollars a month with drugs that don't have the patents expire. I'm hopeful this will expand the ability to receive treatment and also allow trials to be tested at greater length to understand long-term effects.
I think the biggest breakthroughs are yet to come: early reports confirm it's extremely effective in treating addictions, including alcohol addiction. I believe this will be seen on par with insulin or even penicillin in couple decades from now.
I’m on tirzepatide and it’s crazy how it can truly reform habits. I’ve been a night snacker my whole life. I don’t even think about food after dinner anymore. At a bar, I used to pound down the last quarter of a beer so I could go get another. Now I might forget to finish it and I probably won’t get another. Now I feel full while eating for the first time in my life. It’s going to be truly transformative at scale, even knowing it doesn’t work for everyone.
In Brasil the patent also expired on March 20, and already there are a dozen of generics that have already applied to get approval, but none got it so far.
So Novo Nordisk itself droped the price a LOT in the last weeks, and even after the price drop you can get the first month free at a lower dosage when starting with a higher one.. Like if you got the 5ml prescripted to you would they send firs month of the 2.5ml for free..
Even the propspect of having generics in the market is already making the price drop..
> That delay is due to special regulatory protections that are intended to encourage innovation by extending a brand-name drugmaker’s monopoly.
Pure profit protection when they make back enough money to fund every one of their drugs off a single patent that they continue to renew for 20 years by slightly modifying the syringe to now have an amazing new innovation like an integrated safety cap, or some other drug-irrelevant bs.
Both Copyright and Patents in the US need 21st century reform to something that is reasonable for the speed of modern technology.
And that mechanism can be tweaked and repeatedly patented.
One of the positive cases for patents on medicines is that they are often chemicals. It's fairly simple to tell whether a chemical is the same or different. "Good fences make good neighbors". You infringe the patent or you don't, and you know that in advance.
But if you want to introduce a similar mechanical device to deliver your definitely patent free generic, now you have to roll the dice that the dozens of patents they've taken out on different delivery mechanism don't affect your approach.
This is fascinating, thank you. Do you think that with approval of oral options this becomes less of an issue, since pill design is so far out of patent across the board?
Novo already guided for its first revenue decline in modern history (adjusted sales down 5-13% for 2026). Stock is down 75% from June 2024 peak. The problem isn't just generics, Lilly's tirzepatide beat CagriSema in the head-to-head, and Lilly has orforglipron (oral, way cheaper to manufacture) coming. At 11x forward earnings Novo is pricing in catastrophe, buuuuut.. the structural problems are real this time.
When I first saw ads of "lost weight magic drug in a syringe" in NY Subway I thought it was some intelligent, sarcastic and learning campaign.
Then I realized US is selling strong, sometimes dangerous diabetes drug as "eat more, weigh less" spell. I’m more than I amazed! Freedom is awesome.
This will be huge. Companies like Hims and Ro charge thousands of dollars a month with drugs that don't have the patents expire. I'm hopeful this will expand the ability to receive treatment and also allow trials to be tested at greater length to understand long-term effects.
I think the biggest breakthroughs are yet to come: early reports confirm it's extremely effective in treating addictions, including alcohol addiction. I believe this will be seen on par with insulin or even penicillin in couple decades from now.
I’m on tirzepatide and it’s crazy how it can truly reform habits. I’ve been a night snacker my whole life. I don’t even think about food after dinner anymore. At a bar, I used to pound down the last quarter of a beer so I could go get another. Now I might forget to finish it and I probably won’t get another. Now I feel full while eating for the first time in my life. It’s going to be truly transformative at scale, even knowing it doesn’t work for everyone.
Can confirm, it does sometimes reduce cravings for drugs and alcohol. It's crazy, you can go 8 hrs without consuming anything.
Food is just another drug.
It just did. The patent expired on March 20 in India.
There are 10+ firms vying ro bring a generic glp1 anywhere the patent has expired. How effective these generics will be is yet to be seen.
This might cause a lot of problems because some people are taking glp1 for "my wedding is in 1 month and I gotta reduce 10kg by then"
In Brasil the patent also expired on March 20, and already there are a dozen of generics that have already applied to get approval, but none got it so far.
So Novo Nordisk itself droped the price a LOT in the last weeks, and even after the price drop you can get the first month free at a lower dosage when starting with a higher one.. Like if you got the 5ml prescripted to you would they send firs month of the 2.5ml for free..
Even the propspect of having generics in the market is already making the price drop..
In India they (novodisk and other patent holders) have ruled out price reduction.
But I suppose they also have to reduce price some or the other day.
In India a few glp1 drugs are launching tomorrow. So I think they already got approval
> That delay is due to special regulatory protections that are intended to encourage innovation by extending a brand-name drugmaker’s monopoly.
Pure profit protection when they make back enough money to fund every one of their drugs off a single patent that they continue to renew for 20 years by slightly modifying the syringe to now have an amazing new innovation like an integrated safety cap, or some other drug-irrelevant bs.
Both Copyright and Patents in the US need 21st century reform to something that is reasonable for the speed of modern technology.
Can you show me a specific example of a syringe modification like you're suggesting? I haven't seen evidence of this, though I've heard the claim.
It happens a lot. The gray area is that the medicine isn't patented, just the delivery mechanism.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36495532/
And that mechanism can be tweaked and repeatedly patented.
One of the positive cases for patents on medicines is that they are often chemicals. It's fairly simple to tell whether a chemical is the same or different. "Good fences make good neighbors". You infringe the patent or you don't, and you know that in advance.
But if you want to introduce a similar mechanical device to deliver your definitely patent free generic, now you have to roll the dice that the dozens of patents they've taken out on different delivery mechanism don't affect your approach.
This is fascinating, thank you. Do you think that with approval of oral options this becomes less of an issue, since pill design is so far out of patent across the board?
Why do you think they always come out with the 24-hour/time-release version 5 years later?
Good, because it’s fucking ridiculous that pharma gets special patent loop holes to maintain a monopoly beyond what the basic protection grants.
Novo already guided for its first revenue decline in modern history (adjusted sales down 5-13% for 2026). Stock is down 75% from June 2024 peak. The problem isn't just generics, Lilly's tirzepatide beat CagriSema in the head-to-head, and Lilly has orforglipron (oral, way cheaper to manufacture) coming. At 11x forward earnings Novo is pricing in catastrophe, buuuuut.. the structural problems are real this time.
Related:
Discontinuation and reinitiation of dual-labeled GLP-1 receptor agonists
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47461018
[dead]
whats the tell?
Go Generic? It sucks.
Anyone else clicked on this expecting an article about Go Generics?
When I first saw ads of "lost weight magic drug in a syringe" in NY Subway I thought it was some intelligent, sarcastic and learning campaign. Then I realized US is selling strong, sometimes dangerous diabetes drug as "eat more, weigh less" spell. I’m more than I amazed! Freedom is awesome.
i don’t think it’s “eat more, weigh less”. they are appetite suppressants, so you’ll eat less, weigh less.