This seems like one of the first very clear indications that separating your country from the US can be beneficial. The first stone unturned - will we see more countries aligning with other powers?
I like the progress but I think the article oversell the hope here. Its not about getting to 10s of crossings a day. The previous volume of ships was 130-140 per day. If the capacity of the strait is down +90% their is going to be long lasting problems. I've seen as many as 3 million of the ~20 million barrals might be getting through. The 17m/day deficit has to come from somewhere i.e more coal or increased oil prices or reduced World GDP by reduced production/consumption.
Also Iran's leverage is in the reduced world volume. If they allow 110 Ships to go through but block the 20 american-aligned (vastly over stated US-bound ships are not anywhere near 20/day). Than the problem for the US is minimized because that would stablize oil prices a reduction of 2% of the world supply might be managable 20% is very hard to make up. Being seperated from the US does not = safety because Iran's leverage is the world shock that will effect the US last. The US is net exporter of Oil. They also import a ton of oil from other nations though due to the Jones act (temporarily on hold). Oil is a world market if cheap oil flows Iran's leverage is gone.
Seems reasonable that the blockade also means big negative impact on X random country -> that country pressures or builds distaste for US. May be an effective way to further sway the distaste for the US across the world.
The only countries going to war with Iran are Israel and USA. The other countries are negotiating with Iran and reportedly paying the toll. Also, the strait has been open to Spanish tankers since two weeks ago.
"President Donald Trump on Tuesday warned the U.K. and France that the U.S. “won’t be there to help you anymore,” as he vented his frustration over the close allies’ refusal to join military action against Iran."
> The current Japanese leader is also a war mongerer, so I'd bet they also threatened to enter the war on USA's side if their ships weren't allowed to pass.
The amount of misinformation foreign people have about Takaichi-san is staggering. She is by no means a "war mongerer" and the Japanese constitution has clear limits that prevent Japan from doing virtually anything. The reason why Japan can get a pass is because they specifically have diplomatic relations with Iran, and when she met with Trump, she promised absolutely nothing due to constitutional limits.
Last week the US stated they didn't need any of the oil, and that if other countries wanted it they could go figure it out themselves. Looks like they have. And yet the US is now back to threatening Iran if they don't open up the oil.
We are 1 Year and 3 months into this current administration, 2 years and 9 months remain. Despite the short period in office, so much damage and chaos has being caused by one individual and the sycophants who surround him.
It is a fact that the reputation of the USA has being damaged, perhaps not repairable for decades or more. This will have consequences.
Perhaps, I hope, Americans will take action to save the democratic norms and institutions that so many of them have claimed to cherish. Before he has dismantled and replaced too many to salvage. Or perhaps they have work tomorrow.
Approximately the same things were said about Dubya Jr's war with invisible WMDs. If you've forgotten - listen to some songs that came out at the time. It's not about a particular president, it's that the US seems to have a systemic dependency on starting these wars.
How many people voted for that "one individual causing chaos" again? 70 million? He's also backed by billionaires and an administration that seems to be just as unhinged. It's not one person causing chaos, it's a whole country with its violent culture. The scale changed slightly, but it's also nothing new.
Thing is, that is not just the individual, the world lost the trust in the american vote. Trump was elected twice, it is easy to imagine that another megalomaniac might be elected next.
In a democratic system, the ruler is a reflection of the majority of the population. Of course it can change during the course of the administration (as seen in the approval ratings), but the trust is lost and most countries now believe that, one way or another, the majority of the US population agree with some of the ideas behind Trump. The damage will not stop by the end of Trump's administration, it is truly the end of multilateralism as we knew it
My hope is that this will show weaknesses in our supposed "checks and balances" that can be patched later. If that means it takes an act of congress to even fire a single military weapon, so be it. That's just one example, but basically "they" need to backtrack and find every "hack" trump used and plug it so this never happens again.
Worst case there will be another Republican president from the same tribe. We could be in for the same exact chaos and damage for another four years. This could go on for a long time.
Remember, Republicans get out and vote. They would rather suffer and destroy America just so the democrats don’t win.
If you could design a perfect plan to destroy the United States, Donald Trump, probably through sheer buffoonish incompetence seems to be implementing it.
1. A non-trivial proportion of us voted for Trump.
2. Blatantly kidnapping and assassinating heads of state is the culmination of US foreign policy and not an anomaly. The machine is working as designed.
The only foreign policy blunders I would attribute to Trump are the completely unnecessary spats with Canada and Denmark/the EU, although neither blunder seems to have made a dent in the ass kissing.
> Perhaps, I hope, Americans will take action to save the democratic norms and institutions that so many of them have claimed to cherish. Before he has dismantled and replaced too many to salvage. Or perhaps they have work tomorrow.
I'm going to take action by voting in November. Or are you suggesting revolution is more prudent, that I should put my life on the line right now because the global economy is a little fucky?
It’s the same grift all over again. The market will drop 2-3% Monday. Jared and Jr will load up on options, WTI puts, and whatever other BS they do.
Then Tuesday we’ll announce that “good talks have happened” and bridge day is delayed. Maybe they’ll roll out the Shah’s nephew or whatever and pave the way for an announcement of a transitional government.
They’ll push the strikes until late in the week or early next week to maximize volatility - next Friday is the April options expiry. It likely the Treasury is intervening in the oil markets, so there’s likely a counter-trade there as well.
I’ve 3x’d my salary on this trade as an observer, the insiders are printing cash. Eventually the credibility of the office of the POTUS will erode to a point where it is going to blow up, we probably have another 3-5 rounds of this.
"Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President DONALD J. TRUMP"
There was a time when The Onion might have run a headline like "Concerned over low troop morale, President converts to Islam to inspire spirit of martyrdom". No more.
Israel wants to completely destroy Iran so than no one would be willing to in any way challenge its occupation of Palestine, nor its ambition to expand into Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Egypt and beyond.
Then there's an element of extremist Christian ideology from Pete H. etc.
Hormuz has little to do with it, it's just an excuse to destroy Iran.
Trump has been convinced that the Iranians are after him, plus there's the Epstein kompromat that the Israelis have on him. He's the only US president compromised enough to destroy Iran for them, war crimes and all.
>And yet the US is now back to threatening Iran...
It's not you specifically, but there's a broader sociological problem where we anthropomorphize countries and then claim they are doing things.
The average person in the US is not threatening Iran, and rationally the US cannot be said to be threatening Iran. What's happening is that an elite clique of Epstein-adjacent legacy-power-trolls (aka The US Government) are threatening Iran.
The US does not have legs, arms, or hands, it cannot do anything. This turn of phrase in which the US (or any country) does something is a semantic-contraption of legacy-power designed to make citizens (whether left, right, or undecided) feel psychologically-responsible for the actions of a entrenched-class of elite-warmongers who do not represent them; and have not represented them for, likely, thousands of years.
Israel recently refused to buy more French military equipment, and France's relations with Israel is at a low; I'm wondering it was the reason the French vessel was allowed through.
France hasn't bought Israeli weapons systems and vice versa for years, so it's just a quick populist win with 0 practical implications either way.
That said, French and Israeli vendors like Thales, IAI, Dassault, Rafael, Elbit, etc still collaborate closely becuase they are both OEMs, vendors, and JV partners in Indian defense deals that integrate both into Indian weapons systems - especially as both are integrated (along with Russian and indigenous weapons systems) with what is become Indians version of the Iron and Steel dome [0][1]. Vietnam is mandating the same thing as part of their 2045 Drone manufacturing strategy [2].
And both MIC ecosystems still collaborate together on defense deals back in Armenia, Cyprus, and Greece.
Most countries that historically had a Soviet/Russian kit are now mandating French+Israeli interoperability becuase of India's success at using it to replace older Soviet or Russian systems where possible.
I think there has been some low volume defense trade in both directions.
What some people seem to forget is that France and Israel also compete over some of the same defense deals. There was these incidents where France banned Israeli companies from some defense shows:
> Most countries that historically had a Soviet/Russian kit are now mandating French+Israeli interoperability becuase of India's success at using it to replace older Soviet or Russian systems where possible.
Elbit also has previous experience retrofitting Soviet MiG-21s to operate with NATO munitions.
Israel also recently killed three UN soldiers and bombarded positions a few meters away from french soldiers. The french ministry of defence wasn't exactly thrilled with this.
That is a good move from Iran. The EU is tired of US induced wars, tired of Greenland threats and just wants to focus on its economy.
In a US war you always have to ask yourself if you do exactly what the US wants in secret. Here it could very well be that the Gulf monarchies are deliberately weakened and the EU/Japan/China are cut off from fossil fuels, so they are even more dependent on the US.
Just about a week ago, Trump was joking about Pearl Harbor on TV while the Japanese PM was sitting right next to him. What's more, she's a nationalist.
The US , when finally back in control by reasonable adults, will need to offer great concessions to Iran in order to extricate from the effects of a disastrous, illegal (both from a US as well as an intentional standpoint) and of course, completely, utterly failed war. And it might be just that Iran gets to be a permanent toll collector for the global economy.
> The US , when finally back in control by reasonable adults
Betting says next president will be Gavin Newsom or JD Vance or Marco Rubio, so I wouldn't bet on that happening anytime soon. It is weird how so bad people bubble up in american politics.
I flatly refuse to believe that people will vote for _JD Vance_. Trump, like him or loathe him (I’d be firmly in the ‘loathe’ camp) has a style/personality which is appealing to some people. Vance, by contrast, is a non-entity.
Never is a long time. Look at where Germany was after both WWI and WWII, and where it is now; it's demonstrably possible to cause irreparable damage to everyone around you, and then rise back to the top (multiple times!). The only questions are timeline and scale.
This. We all thought Trump was a crazy accident but the fact that he almost beat Biden, and then did beat Harris, means we just can't trust Americans to put sensible people in charge. Assuming a democrat takes the office next, they will inherit an economy in tatters, a failing infrastructure and a broken strategic alliance. They'll have four years to try to fix all of that while the republicans blame them for everything they've inherited, and four years from that the American people will have largely forgotten how Trump and his minions trailed dog shit all through the house and they'll vote for the next right wing dick that's been groomed for the job - probably Pete Hegseth, or Don Jr, or Mark Wayne Mullin
> The US , when finally back in control by reasonable adults
This rings as "make America great again", just with a different mythology standing-in for "again".
The US (or at least the US _state_) hasn't been in control by reasonable adults in over a century, or arguably ever.
What is finally becoming obvious is that this particular landmass is much too large to be under the control of a single state, and now that we have instant communications and ubiquitous cameras, even the arguments (laid out eg in the federalist papers) are no longer dispositive.
Calm and careful deprecation of the US as a state needs to top the new agenda.
> The US , when finally back in control by reasonable adults
Everyone reasonable seems to be holding their breath in anticipation of this eventually happening.
What if it doesn’t? What if all of this is a symptom of an underlying deterioration that extends deeper and beyond the current administration? It’s not Trump that made Americans A-OK with wars of aggression; Obama blew up as many kids using drones as Trump put into cages. What if the next few are the same, or worse? What do we do if this isn’t a temporary excursion but the new normal for the US and A?
> What if it doesn’t? What if all of this is a symptom of an underlying deterioration that extends deeper and beyond the current administration? It’s not Trump that made Americans A-OK with wars of aggression; Obama blew up as many kids using drones as Trump put into cages. What if the next few are the same, or worse? What do we do if this isn’t a temporary excursion but the new normal for the US and A?
In the cold war, there was the "Evil East" and the "Good West", and this opposition forced at least some token "goodness" and a certain predictable behavior on both sides. It also forced both sides to have some firm principles they adhere to. Now the cold war is over, and while it did change more in the formerly East, the West, at least in some parts, also learned a few things. Among them that principles are negotiable, especially without a closed opposing bloc with the opposite principles. Doing business with China and Russia not only made people rich, it also moved Western culture more towards the Eastern ones, more than anyone would like to admit. Starting to see things from the Eastern perspective also induced the West to over time to not just understand the former enemy better and learn the "good stuff". We started to find things like strong autocratic leadership, compromises on human rights, ignorance of international laws and treaties, and wars of aggression and conquest more acceptable and even preferable.
Yeah, that's what I'm afraid of. The US saw what Trump did during his first term, and four years later, after relative calm, they were like "nah, let's go back to Trump." That's the new normal. In fact, things will be worse during the next election, with even more of the media owned by unhinged billionaires intent on robbing as much as possible from normal people.
> The US , when finally back in control by reasonable adults
There is no way back, as there is no way back to the world before covid or before the 2008 global crisis. They say about Russian history "it was bad and then it got worse". Over and over, for hundreds of years. Vlad and Donnie are friends now.
> when finally back in control by reasonable adults
no one even knows who was really in control during the previous administration. quite a few idiotic and destructive policy changes were made during that administration too
There’s every chance that the US loses the trust of the GCC countries and they choose to spend their oil money away from the US should all of this madness ever calm down.
It's extremely unlikely without a common currency and a military alliance with larger, more populous states like Egypt and Iraq. The former would be unacceptable as it would represent a competitor to the Petrodollar, and the latter would be a threat to Israel.
This seems like one of the first very clear indications that separating your country from the US can be beneficial. The first stone unturned - will we see more countries aligning with other powers?
I like the progress but I think the article oversell the hope here. Its not about getting to 10s of crossings a day. The previous volume of ships was 130-140 per day. If the capacity of the strait is down +90% their is going to be long lasting problems. I've seen as many as 3 million of the ~20 million barrals might be getting through. The 17m/day deficit has to come from somewhere i.e more coal or increased oil prices or reduced World GDP by reduced production/consumption.
Also Iran's leverage is in the reduced world volume. If they allow 110 Ships to go through but block the 20 american-aligned (vastly over stated US-bound ships are not anywhere near 20/day). Than the problem for the US is minimized because that would stablize oil prices a reduction of 2% of the world supply might be managable 20% is very hard to make up. Being seperated from the US does not = safety because Iran's leverage is the world shock that will effect the US last. The US is net exporter of Oil. They also import a ton of oil from other nations though due to the Jones act (temporarily on hold). Oil is a world market if cheap oil flows Iran's leverage is gone.
Seems reasonable that the blockade also means big negative impact on X random country -> that country pressures or builds distaste for US. May be an effective way to further sway the distaste for the US across the world.
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The only countries going to war with Iran are Israel and USA. The other countries are negotiating with Iran and reportedly paying the toll. Also, the strait has been open to Spanish tankers since two weeks ago.
France has distanced itself from Israel recently; Israel is refusing to buy more French military equipment
Yes, France did: It went with Russia and China in the revised and postponed UN resolution that does not mention use of force to reopen Hormuz.
Maybe do some research before just dispatching random thoughts
https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/europe/2026/04/03/franc...
What are on about now? France explicitely and vocally refused to enter the war. That is why their tanker passed.
> France and Japan never distanced themselves from USA here.
Trump sure seems to think France did.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/31/trump-attacks-uk-france-x-po...
"President Donald Trump on Tuesday warned the U.K. and France that the U.S. “won’t be there to help you anymore,” as he vented his frustration over the close allies’ refusal to join military action against Iran."
Complete nonsense, easily debunked. You should be embarrassed to post this.
> The current Japanese leader is also a war mongerer, so I'd bet they also threatened to enter the war on USA's side if their ships weren't allowed to pass.
The amount of misinformation foreign people have about Takaichi-san is staggering. She is by no means a "war mongerer" and the Japanese constitution has clear limits that prevent Japan from doing virtually anything. The reason why Japan can get a pass is because they specifically have diplomatic relations with Iran, and when she met with Trump, she promised absolutely nothing due to constitutional limits.
Last week the US stated they didn't need any of the oil, and that if other countries wanted it they could go figure it out themselves. Looks like they have. And yet the US is now back to threatening Iran if they don't open up the oil.
We are 1 Year and 3 months into this current administration, 2 years and 9 months remain. Despite the short period in office, so much damage and chaos has being caused by one individual and the sycophants who surround him.
It is a fact that the reputation of the USA has being damaged, perhaps not repairable for decades or more. This will have consequences.
Perhaps, I hope, Americans will take action to save the democratic norms and institutions that so many of them have claimed to cherish. Before he has dismantled and replaced too many to salvage. Or perhaps they have work tomorrow.
Approximately the same things were said about Dubya Jr's war with invisible WMDs. If you've forgotten - listen to some songs that came out at the time. It's not about a particular president, it's that the US seems to have a systemic dependency on starting these wars.
How many people voted for that "one individual causing chaos" again? 70 million? He's also backed by billionaires and an administration that seems to be just as unhinged. It's not one person causing chaos, it's a whole country with its violent culture. The scale changed slightly, but it's also nothing new.
Thing is, that is not just the individual, the world lost the trust in the american vote. Trump was elected twice, it is easy to imagine that another megalomaniac might be elected next.
In a democratic system, the ruler is a reflection of the majority of the population. Of course it can change during the course of the administration (as seen in the approval ratings), but the trust is lost and most countries now believe that, one way or another, the majority of the US population agree with some of the ideas behind Trump. The damage will not stop by the end of Trump's administration, it is truly the end of multilateralism as we knew it
My hope is that this will show weaknesses in our supposed "checks and balances" that can be patched later. If that means it takes an act of congress to even fire a single military weapon, so be it. That's just one example, but basically "they" need to backtrack and find every "hack" trump used and plug it so this never happens again.
Worst case there will be another Republican president from the same tribe. We could be in for the same exact chaos and damage for another four years. This could go on for a long time.
Remember, Republicans get out and vote. They would rather suffer and destroy America just so the democrats don’t win.
> It is a fact that the reputation of the USA has being damaged, perhaps not repairable for decades or more.
The MAGA base does not care about the international reputation of the US. They lean heavily towards isolationism (irrationally, imho).
Not one individual. You forgot the ones put the yoke.
If you could design a perfect plan to destroy the United States, Donald Trump, probably through sheer buffoonish incompetence seems to be implementing it.
> 2 years and 9 months remain
You think.
Peaceful transfers of power are always tricky in younger democracies.
> take action to save the democratic
Im beting 1000 USD that Trump comes up with whatever story/issue/incident to "manipulate" all upcoming elections to his favour
1. A non-trivial proportion of us voted for Trump.
2. Blatantly kidnapping and assassinating heads of state is the culmination of US foreign policy and not an anomaly. The machine is working as designed.
The only foreign policy blunders I would attribute to Trump are the completely unnecessary spats with Canada and Denmark/the EU, although neither blunder seems to have made a dent in the ass kissing.
[flagged]
> Perhaps, I hope, Americans will take action to save the democratic norms and institutions that so many of them have claimed to cherish. Before he has dismantled and replaced too many to salvage. Or perhaps they have work tomorrow.
I'm going to take action by voting in November. Or are you suggesting revolution is more prudent, that I should put my life on the line right now because the global economy is a little fucky?
It’s the same grift all over again. The market will drop 2-3% Monday. Jared and Jr will load up on options, WTI puts, and whatever other BS they do.
Then Tuesday we’ll announce that “good talks have happened” and bridge day is delayed. Maybe they’ll roll out the Shah’s nephew or whatever and pave the way for an announcement of a transitional government.
They’ll push the strikes until late in the week or early next week to maximize volatility - next Friday is the April options expiry. It likely the Treasury is intervening in the oil markets, so there’s likely a counter-trade there as well.
I’ve 3x’d my salary on this trade as an observer, the insiders are printing cash. Eventually the credibility of the office of the POTUS will erode to a point where it is going to blow up, we probably have another 3-5 rounds of this.
It is the weekend, of course there is a threat. Tomorrow there will be a deal.
New deal: There is a toll 5 million usd per tanker, and oil must be paid in RNB not USD.
Basically Iran put sanction on US. I guess Trump expected fight or something.
> And yet the US is now back to threatening Iran if they don't open up the oil.
Trump's most recent statement ( https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/1163519987825... ):
"Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President DONALD J. TRUMP"
There was a time when The Onion might have run a headline like "Concerned over low troop morale, President converts to Islam to inspire spirit of martyrdom". No more.
He's thiiiiiisss >< close to threatening to drop a nuke on Tehran isn't he
Given the events of the past month...
Are we at a point where we can conclusively say that the United States is a country that wants to wipe Iran off the face of the Earth?
Bombing them into the stone age where they belong, complete destruction of them, no quarter, decapitation strikes, bridge day, etc?
>And yet the US is now back to threatening Iran if they don't open up the oil.
Because no matter how much they pretend it doesn't affect the US, oil is a global market.
Israel wants to completely destroy Iran so than no one would be willing to in any way challenge its occupation of Palestine, nor its ambition to expand into Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Egypt and beyond.
Then there's an element of extremist Christian ideology from Pete H. etc.
Hormuz has little to do with it, it's just an excuse to destroy Iran.
Trump has been convinced that the Iranians are after him, plus there's the Epstein kompromat that the Israelis have on him. He's the only US president compromised enough to destroy Iran for them, war crimes and all.
The oil narrative is what worked after Iraq war and I am afraid it will work now
>And yet the US is now back to threatening Iran...
It's not you specifically, but there's a broader sociological problem where we anthropomorphize countries and then claim they are doing things.
The average person in the US is not threatening Iran, and rationally the US cannot be said to be threatening Iran. What's happening is that an elite clique of Epstein-adjacent legacy-power-trolls (aka The US Government) are threatening Iran.
The US does not have legs, arms, or hands, it cannot do anything. This turn of phrase in which the US (or any country) does something is a semantic-contraption of legacy-power designed to make citizens (whether left, right, or undecided) feel psychologically-responsible for the actions of a entrenched-class of elite-warmongers who do not represent them; and have not represented them for, likely, thousands of years.
Israel recently refused to buy more French military equipment, and France's relations with Israel is at a low; I'm wondering it was the reason the French vessel was allowed through.
France hasn't bought Israeli weapons systems and vice versa for years, so it's just a quick populist win with 0 practical implications either way.
That said, French and Israeli vendors like Thales, IAI, Dassault, Rafael, Elbit, etc still collaborate closely becuase they are both OEMs, vendors, and JV partners in Indian defense deals that integrate both into Indian weapons systems - especially as both are integrated (along with Russian and indigenous weapons systems) with what is become Indians version of the Iron and Steel dome [0][1]. Vietnam is mandating the same thing as part of their 2045 Drone manufacturing strategy [2].
And both MIC ecosystems still collaborate together on defense deals back in Armenia, Cyprus, and Greece.
Most countries that historically had a Soviet/Russian kit are now mandating French+Israeli interoperability becuase of India's success at using it to replace older Soviet or Russian systems where possible.
[0] - https://www.thalesgroup.com/en/news-centre/press-releases/th...
[1] - https://www.israeldefense.co.il/en/node/64841
[2] - https://www.intelligenceonline.fr/asie-pacifique/2026/03/02/...
I think there has been some low volume defense trade in both directions.
What some people seem to forget is that France and Israel also compete over some of the same defense deals. There was these incidents where France banned Israeli companies from some defense shows:
https://www.politico.eu/article/france-bans-israeli-companie...
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250616-france-blocks...
> Most countries that historically had a Soviet/Russian kit are now mandating French+Israeli interoperability becuase of India's success at using it to replace older Soviet or Russian systems where possible.
Elbit also has previous experience retrofitting Soviet MiG-21s to operate with NATO munitions.
Israel also recently killed three UN soldiers and bombarded positions a few meters away from french soldiers. The french ministry of defence wasn't exactly thrilled with this.
They announced they will veto military actions to open Straight of Hormuz in the UN security council.
That is a good move from Iran. The EU is tired of US induced wars, tired of Greenland threats and just wants to focus on its economy.
In a US war you always have to ask yourself if you do exactly what the US wants in secret. Here it could very well be that the Gulf monarchies are deliberately weakened and the EU/Japan/China are cut off from fossil fuels, so they are even more dependent on the US.
Just about a week ago, Trump was joking about Pearl Harbor on TV while the Japanese PM was sitting right next to him. What's more, she's a nationalist.
I only give Trump about 25% credit for that joke, the reporter tee’d it up too much. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fFmA0xlINGg&ra=m
Remember that video about ethnical clensing gaza, beach resort casinos and golden Trump statues? Real estste crypto bro version of hitler!
If only Hollywood had have let Trump be in more films than Home Alone 2, none of this would have happened!
The US , when finally back in control by reasonable adults, will need to offer great concessions to Iran in order to extricate from the effects of a disastrous, illegal (both from a US as well as an intentional standpoint) and of course, completely, utterly failed war. And it might be just that Iran gets to be a permanent toll collector for the global economy.
> The US , when finally back in control by reasonable adults
Betting says next president will be Gavin Newsom or JD Vance or Marco Rubio, so I wouldn't bet on that happening anytime soon. It is weird how so bad people bubble up in american politics.
We're 2 1/2 years away from the next election...
I flatly refuse to believe that people will vote for _JD Vance_. Trump, like him or loathe him (I’d be firmly in the ‘loathe’ camp) has a style/personality which is appealing to some people. Vance, by contrast, is a non-entity.
I wish with all my heart it’s going to be Newsom. Perfectly center left just like I like it.
none of those three people will be president
No matter who controls the US in the future, it will never go back to the position it once had globally.
It's been actively harming it's allies, threatening them with invasion and conspiring with their enemies.
The rest of the world cannot afford to give the American people the benefit of the doubt.
After Trump I, there was hope it was just a fluke. Trump II is much worse and cements the unreliability of the American voting public.
Never is a long time. Look at where Germany was after both WWI and WWII, and where it is now; it's demonstrably possible to cause irreparable damage to everyone around you, and then rise back to the top (multiple times!). The only questions are timeline and scale.
This. We all thought Trump was a crazy accident but the fact that he almost beat Biden, and then did beat Harris, means we just can't trust Americans to put sensible people in charge. Assuming a democrat takes the office next, they will inherit an economy in tatters, a failing infrastructure and a broken strategic alliance. They'll have four years to try to fix all of that while the republicans blame them for everything they've inherited, and four years from that the American people will have largely forgotten how Trump and his minions trailed dog shit all through the house and they'll vote for the next right wing dick that's been groomed for the job - probably Pete Hegseth, or Don Jr, or Mark Wayne Mullin
If Xi put a break on China's growth, Trump surely did throw US influence and soft power straight into the bin. The only winner is China.
> The US , when finally back in control by reasonable adults
This rings as "make America great again", just with a different mythology standing-in for "again".
The US (or at least the US _state_) hasn't been in control by reasonable adults in over a century, or arguably ever.
What is finally becoming obvious is that this particular landmass is much too large to be under the control of a single state, and now that we have instant communications and ubiquitous cameras, even the arguments (laid out eg in the federalist papers) are no longer dispositive.
Calm and careful deprecation of the US as a state needs to top the new agenda.
> The US , when finally back in control by reasonable adults
Everyone reasonable seems to be holding their breath in anticipation of this eventually happening.
What if it doesn’t? What if all of this is a symptom of an underlying deterioration that extends deeper and beyond the current administration? It’s not Trump that made Americans A-OK with wars of aggression; Obama blew up as many kids using drones as Trump put into cages. What if the next few are the same, or worse? What do we do if this isn’t a temporary excursion but the new normal for the US and A?
> What if it doesn’t? What if all of this is a symptom of an underlying deterioration that extends deeper and beyond the current administration? It’s not Trump that made Americans A-OK with wars of aggression; Obama blew up as many kids using drones as Trump put into cages. What if the next few are the same, or worse? What do we do if this isn’t a temporary excursion but the new normal for the US and A?
In the cold war, there was the "Evil East" and the "Good West", and this opposition forced at least some token "goodness" and a certain predictable behavior on both sides. It also forced both sides to have some firm principles they adhere to. Now the cold war is over, and while it did change more in the formerly East, the West, at least in some parts, also learned a few things. Among them that principles are negotiable, especially without a closed opposing bloc with the opposite principles. Doing business with China and Russia not only made people rich, it also moved Western culture more towards the Eastern ones, more than anyone would like to admit. Starting to see things from the Eastern perspective also induced the West to over time to not just understand the former enemy better and learn the "good stuff". We started to find things like strong autocratic leadership, compromises on human rights, ignorance of international laws and treaties, and wars of aggression and conquest more acceptable and even preferable.
So I don't think this is just temporary.
Yeah, that's what I'm afraid of. The US saw what Trump did during his first term, and four years later, after relative calm, they were like "nah, let's go back to Trump." That's the new normal. In fact, things will be worse during the next election, with even more of the media owned by unhinged billionaires intent on robbing as much as possible from normal people.
> Obama blew up as many kids using drones as Trump put into cages.
Obama didn't deliberately target kids using drones.
> The US , when finally back in control by reasonable adults
There is no way back, as there is no way back to the world before covid or before the 2008 global crisis. They say about Russian history "it was bad and then it got worse". Over and over, for hundreds of years. Vlad and Donnie are friends now.
> when finally back in control by reasonable adults
no one even knows who was really in control during the previous administration. quite a few idiotic and destructive policy changes were made during that administration too
There’s every chance that the US loses the trust of the GCC countries and they choose to spend their oil money away from the US should all of this madness ever calm down.
It's extremely unlikely without a common currency and a military alliance with larger, more populous states like Egypt and Iraq. The former would be unacceptable as it would represent a competitor to the Petrodollar, and the latter would be a threat to Israel.
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> This is a moment that ALL Americans, Republican, Democrat, Independents, everybody
You lost me here. He wouldn’t say this.