Why would a super intelligent robot do work for you? No, super intelligent robot will use it's superier intellect to convince YOU to do the dishes and the fold the laundry while it watches tv.
I have a washing machine. That automates most of washing clothes, hanging and folding them takes seconds.
I expect robots in unexpected, previously unautomated areas. I don't expect them to look humanoid other than the ones that will look exceptionally humanoid perhaps changing form from time to time.
A few years ago, I saw a talk that made a point about how prosthetics that mimic original human body parts are often designed from an able-bodied point of view. They look inoffensive and are designed for the wearer to blend into what's considered normal.
However, these prosthetics frequently are not all that useful. Once one starts to rethink from first principles in terms of function and efficiency rather than aesthetics this opens up an entirely new space of solutions that might be much more efficient than the original "solutions" they replace - the most famous example probably being Oscar Pistorius' running blades.
The same applies to digital transformation - and by extension AI and robotics. We don't need faster horses. We need to rethink and replace existing processes entirely.
There is some we since many centuries ago that did not have to do laundry and fold clothes nor cook... because they have some meatware "robots" automating this tasks already.
I'd wish we could have robots helping us to produce bionanotextiles4.0 that make folding/ironing optional or obsolete, or microwaves that turn some gunk mix of element in the periodic table an turn them into a salad or a stake, rather than getting a remote controlled clanker harvesting every fart of data I produce.
We are more likely to have water and food shortages because of resource exhaustion and climate change. Maybe goods shortages because of war or economic depression.
You don’t want that.
Because it would mean 5 rich dudes own all physical work.
What happens to the rest of us when that happens? What economic system can we create that makes sense? (The current one does not make sense in that scenario. Game it out for five minutes like a chess game if you don’t believe me).
We urgently need an answer to that question before it happens. The Elon suggestion is so laughable as to be unworthy of an answer.
I’m not a roboticist but I get the core concepts and challenges (and I’ve been in the room with leaders in the space). And I know a bit about LLMs and the current state of AI systems.
the human-form robots out of China unlocking motion based on copying human motion indicate that generally useful human labor replacement robots should be on the market within five years (probably at a starting price of $40k) and really good within ten. (And market forces might drive the price to $20k in today’s dollars)
And given how long it takes to invent, validate and adopt new economic systems we need to predict the failure mode of what happens when 5 rich dudes own all work and everyone else is homeless and hungry (hint the French Revolution was a mini study on what happens when the top gets too heavy and the bottom stops having it)
Like I said, you don’t want this. Nobody wants this. Hopefully some smart billionaires figure that out and solve it soon enough to save their own skins. (Along with everyone else)
Those 5 billionaire guys do want this- The french revolution probably wouldnt have happened the way it did if they had to deal with an army of terminator robots
Why would a super intelligent robot do work for you? No, super intelligent robot will use it's superier intellect to convince YOU to do the dishes and the fold the laundry while it watches tv.
I have a washing machine. That automates most of washing clothes, hanging and folding them takes seconds.
I expect robots in unexpected, previously unautomated areas. I don't expect them to look humanoid other than the ones that will look exceptionally humanoid perhaps changing form from time to time.
Hanging and folding does not take seconds blud
A wash per day. In it, a couple of t-shirts, a shirt, a hoodie, a pair of trousers, socks, underwear. At max.
It really shouldn't take more than a handful of seconds to give a good flap and put any one of these on a hangar.
Likewise folding. A couple of seconds. Shirts don't need folding, they stay n the hangar.
I'm struggling to think why it would take longer. Are you new to clothes?
Who has time to do laundry once a day. That sounds crazy if you don't have small kids.
Not to mention ironing and putting away.
It might not be about robot replacing chore entirely,but redefining them.Like how dishwashers don't eliminate dishes, they just changed the workflow.
Exactly this.
A few years ago, I saw a talk that made a point about how prosthetics that mimic original human body parts are often designed from an able-bodied point of view. They look inoffensive and are designed for the wearer to blend into what's considered normal.
However, these prosthetics frequently are not all that useful. Once one starts to rethink from first principles in terms of function and efficiency rather than aesthetics this opens up an entirely new space of solutions that might be much more efficient than the original "solutions" they replace - the most famous example probably being Oscar Pistorius' running blades.
The same applies to digital transformation - and by extension AI and robotics. We don't need faster horses. We need to rethink and replace existing processes entirely.
There is some we since many centuries ago that did not have to do laundry and fold clothes nor cook... because they have some meatware "robots" automating this tasks already.
I'd wish we could have robots helping us to produce bionanotextiles4.0 that make folding/ironing optional or obsolete, or microwaves that turn some gunk mix of element in the periodic table an turn them into a salad or a stake, rather than getting a remote controlled clanker harvesting every fart of data I produce.
No affiliation, and not sure if it will actually do those things well but startup building for that: https://www.1x.tech/neo
We are more likely to have water and food shortages because of resource exhaustion and climate change. Maybe goods shortages because of war or economic depression.
Data is proving otherwise. While locally shortages do happen, in general there more resources available than ever: http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2023/04/50-ways-the-world-is...
Well, except for water https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/01/1166800
More likely we get to do these chores while AI gets the real jobs done.
I'd say the 2050s
You don’t want that. Because it would mean 5 rich dudes own all physical work. What happens to the rest of us when that happens? What economic system can we create that makes sense? (The current one does not make sense in that scenario. Game it out for five minutes like a chess game if you don’t believe me).
We urgently need an answer to that question before it happens. The Elon suggestion is so laughable as to be unworthy of an answer.
I’m not a roboticist but I get the core concepts and challenges (and I’ve been in the room with leaders in the space). And I know a bit about LLMs and the current state of AI systems.
the human-form robots out of China unlocking motion based on copying human motion indicate that generally useful human labor replacement robots should be on the market within five years (probably at a starting price of $40k) and really good within ten. (And market forces might drive the price to $20k in today’s dollars)
And given how long it takes to invent, validate and adopt new economic systems we need to predict the failure mode of what happens when 5 rich dudes own all work and everyone else is homeless and hungry (hint the French Revolution was a mini study on what happens when the top gets too heavy and the bottom stops having it)
Like I said, you don’t want this. Nobody wants this. Hopefully some smart billionaires figure that out and solve it soon enough to save their own skins. (Along with everyone else)
Those 5 billionaire guys do want this- The french revolution probably wouldnt have happened the way it did if they had to deal with an army of terminator robots